NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	7.1 [382]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +33.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	96		Comeback	3.4 [295]		LVP	Jordan Clarkson (LAL): -9.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.33,0.34	0.15	0.24	0.06	20	67%	0.38	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.03
Darrell Arthur	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21	0.07	0.14	0.00	10	62%	0.21	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Randy Foye	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.06	0.00	7	86%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.00	7	65%	0.09	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.16
JaVale McGee	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	5	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	18%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Wilson Chandler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	13	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	0.00	15	55%	0.24	2	-0.08	8	62%	-0.04
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	-0.03	0.02	13	69%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.03	13	41%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	7	43%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.03	0.00	8	60%	0.05	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Tarik Black	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Robert Sacre	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Ryan Kelly	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	7	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	5	58%	0.08	5	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	11	32%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.4	31.6	18.4	30.4	3.4	36.6	148.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +48.4%

LAL -2.9%

LAL -15.5%

DEN +23.7%

LAL -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	14.1	17.2	15.1	115.2	104.3	104.2
season	14.6	15.5		103.4	101.9
opponent	14.7	15.3		108.9	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	15.0	13.8	12.8	14.1
LAL	17.8	17.7	16.2	17.2	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Arthur	51	51	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.12	21	-11	32	12.9	15.6	-2.66	17.7	16.5	1.19
Randy Foye	51	50	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.20	18	-8	26	13.2	15.3	-2.09	16.5	18.0	-1.57
JJ Hickson	51	50	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-1	12	13.5	14.9	-1.48	16.9	17.5	-0.65
Ty Lawson	86	87	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	4	2	14.2	12.5	1.72	17.1	18.6	-1.49
Danilo Gallinari	43	43	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.08	8	2	6	12.8	15.3	-2.52	16.0	18.2	-2.20
Wilson Chandler	53	54	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	3	4	14.7	13.3	1.39	17.9	16.2	1.77
JaVale McGee	4	3	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.02	4	6	-2	7.7	14.4	-6.65	17.7	17.2	0.49
Arron Afflalo	46	45	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.02	-2	12	-14	15.0	13.2	1.78	18.0	16.4	1.62
Kenneth Faried	41	41	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.09	-11	21	-32	15.6	12.9	2.66	16.5	17.7	-1.19
Jusuf Nurkic	34	36	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.08	-12	22	-34	16.5	12.7	3.84	18.0	16.7	1.37

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Sacre	34	33	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-9	8	18.5	16.4	2.12	15.3	13.4	1.86
Tarik Black	33	32	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-6	2	19.1	16.1	2.96	15.3	13.5	1.85
Jordan Clarkson	49	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.20	3	-13	16	17.9	16.4	1.50	14.5	13.7	0.82
Ryan Kelly	38	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-6	2	18.3	16.4	1.82	14.3	14.0	0.37
Wayne Ellington	58	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-6	2	17.6	16.4	1.20	14.1	14.1	0.09
Ed Davis	43	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-4	-2	16.8	17.5	-0.67	13.4	14.8	-1.43
Jeremy Lin	43	44	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.01	-13	3	-16	16.4	17.9	-1.50	13.7	14.5	-0.82
Wesley Johnson	51	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.21	-6	-4	-2	16.2	18.5	-2.29	13.8	14.5	-0.67
Nick Young	52	54	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	-1	-8	16.3	18.3	-1.95	14.1	14.2	-0.08
Carlos Boozer	59	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-4	-2	16.1	19.1	-2.96	13.5	15.3	-1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.32,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.27,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 95, DEN 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.27,0	92.1%
CHH 98, DET 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.43,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.09,0	91.9%
CHA 99, BKN 95	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.15,0.26,0.32,0.09,0	91.7%