NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	93		Excitement	6.1 [588]		MVP	Donatas Motiejunas (HOU): +21.2%
Boston Celtics	87		Comeback	1.1 [1072]		LVP	Jared Sullinger (BOS): -27.6%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donatas Motiejunas	0.21	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21	0.12	0.07	-0.02	16	74%	0.35	4	-0.14	3	33%	-0.03
Corey Brewer	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	7	62%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joey Dorsey	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	44%	0.03	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Terrence Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Josh Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.02	13	54%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	10	35%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21	-0.21	-0.06	-0.06	21	30%	-0.12	5	-0.09	5	80%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.01	-0.03	13	63%	0.20	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	11	57%	0.06	0	0.00	8	62%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	10	65%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	12	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	6	44%	-0.07	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	-0.00	-0.02	10	20%	-0.08	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	6	29%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Sullinger	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.14	-0.13	0.00	14	29%	-0.20	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.4	27.6	15.4	27.4	2.3	38.5	134.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +45.5%

BOS -1.9%

HOU +9.2%

BOS -3.8%

HOU +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	BOS	NBA	HOU	BOS	NBA
this game	14.4	15.1	15.1	94.9	89.7	104.2
season	14.3	14.3		105.6	103.1
opponent	15.4	14.9		103.3	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.2	14.9	17.5	12.4	14.4
BOS	16.8	17.1	12.5	14.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donatas Motiejunas	62	61	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	-1	8	15.7	12.2	3.48	15.6	14.2	1.43
James Harden	83	81	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.31	3	3	0	14.2	15.7	-1.44	14.7	17.2	-2.58
Patrick Beverley	69	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.36	1	5	-4	14.6	14.0	0.64	14.6	16.3	-1.68
Trevor Ariza	73	70	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	3	0	14.0	15.6	-1.60	15.2	14.9	0.33
Corey Brewer	47	48	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.10	5	1	4	13.5	15.3	-1.80	14.9	15.3	-0.43
Josh Smith	63	63	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.19	1	5	-4	13.6	16.0	-2.46	14.8	15.6	-0.85
Terrence Jones	40	41	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.12	2	4	-2	14.8	14.2	0.55	15.4	14.9	0.52
Jason Terry	28	28	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.08	7	-1	8	14.5	14.4	0.07	16.3	14.6	1.68
Joey Dorsey	25	24	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.06	1	5	-4	16.1	13.9	2.19	15.6	14.9	0.71

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	63	63	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-7	8	15.5	14.3	1.27	15.8	11.9	3.90
Tyler Zeller	41	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-3	0	14.4	15.6	-1.17	13.3	15.1	-1.81
Evan Turner	40	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-2	-2	15.4	14.9	0.57	15.5	13.7	1.79
Gerald Wallace	12	13	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	3	-12	18.7	14.6	4.17	14.5	14.4	0.10
Marcus Thornton	48	50	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-6	6	14.5	15.7	-1.13	13.1	15.9	-2.75
Avery Bradley	68	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-5	4	14.3	17.0	-2.67	14.0	15.6	-1.61
Jared Sullinger	60	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.36	2	-8	10	15.1	15.0	0.11	14.5	14.3	0.19
Marcus Smart	57	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-4	2	14.9	15.4	-0.57	13.7	15.5	-1.79
Jae Crowder	56	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.13	-8	2	-10	15.4	14.7	0.71	15.1	13.5	1.57
Tayshaun Prince	40	40	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.21	-6	0	-6	15.5	14.8	0.78	14.7	14.2	0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.3,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.33,0.31,0.15,0.22,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 101, NOH 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.07,0,0	94.4%
CHA 105, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.22,0.31,0.19,0.03,0,0	93.9%
POR 102, NJN 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.02,0,0	93.7%