NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	100		Excitement	9.7 [86]		MVP	Avery Bradley (BOS): +40.3%
Denver Nuggets	99		Comeback	5.0 [79]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (DEN): -39.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Bradley	0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.09,0.09,0.27,0.4	0.07	0.32	-0.01	11	82%	0.56	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.08	0.00	3	129%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Marcus Thornton	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.06	-0.03	7	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.00	10	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Marcus Smart	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Brandon Bass	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	12	53%	0.01	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Gerald Wallace	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Phil Pressey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,-0.08	0.01	-0.09	0.00	8	56%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.21
Jared Sullinger	-0.37	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22,-0.22,-0.37	-0.09	-0.27	0.01	13	41%	-0.08	3	-0.29	8	50%	-0.10

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.11	-0.00	8	68%	0.20	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.07
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.26,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.04	0.00	13	61%	0.21	1	-0.09	7	100%	0.07
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.03	7	25%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	12	38%	0.05	1	-0.08	5	60%	-0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	15	41%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.05
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.39	-0.39	0.00	-0.38	0.01	20	55%	-0.28	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.6	25.2	15.7	27.3	2.4	38.5	136.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +105.6%

DEN -28.6%

DEN -4.8%

DEN -26.5%

BOS +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DEN	NBA	BOS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	14.3	15.1	105.3	103.1	104.2
season	14.3	14.6		103.1	103.4
opponent	15.3	15.4		106.6	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.0	16.6	14.4	15.5	15.8
DEN	15.0	14.1	13.8	14.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	45	46	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.54	4	-3	7	14.4	17.2	-2.80	14.4	14.3	0.07
Avery Bradley	60	60	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.47	2	-1	3	15.6	16.1	-0.49	14.3	14.4	-0.18
Tyler Zeller	44	44	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.31	6	-5	11	16.5	15.2	1.33	14.5	14.2	0.35
Brandon Bass	70	73	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.50	-8	9	-17	15.8	16.0	-0.17	14.2	14.7	-0.48
Evan Turner	53	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.53	-10	11	-21	15.9	15.8	0.12	14.3	14.3	-0.03
Tayshaun Prince	34	32	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	0	1	15.7	15.9	-0.20	14.9	14.1	0.81
Jared Sullinger	59	59	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.05	2	-1	3	15.3	16.7	-1.34	14.2	14.5	-0.25
Phil Pressey	33	32	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	-4	9	15.7	15.9	-0.25	14.0	14.5	-0.55
Gerald Wallace	16	15	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.07	4	-3	7	16.7	15.6	1.10	14.9	14.2	0.71
Marcus Smart	26	27	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	1	-1	18.2	15.0	3.20	14.0	14.5	-0.52
Marcus Thornton	35	36	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	2	-3	16.1	15.6	0.49	14.4	14.3	0.18

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wilson Chandler	72	71	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.34	8	-9	17	14.2	14.6	-0.39	16.3	14.5	1.84
Arron Afflalo	77	76	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.44	9	-10	19	14.1	15.4	-1.36	16.1	14.8	1.30
Danilo Gallinari	35	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.14	-12	11	-23	14.6	14.2	0.37	14.7	16.5	-1.80
Jusuf Nurkic	30	31	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.07	-6	5	-11	14.2	14.4	-0.19	14.8	16.3	-1.47
JJ Hickson	58	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.42	6	-7	13	14.5	14.1	0.42	16.2	15.2	1.02
Darrell Arthur	25	26	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	7	-15	14.9	14.1	0.74	15.5	16.0	-0.51
Randy Foye	22	23	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	8	-17	14.8	14.2	0.57	15.1	16.1	-0.93
Kenneth Faried	76	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.65	7	-8	15	14.2	14.6	-0.40	16.3	14.2	2.07
Jameer Nelson	85	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.49	0	-1	1	14.3	14.6	-0.34	15.7	16.9	-1.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.3,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.45,0.43,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 94, MIN 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.73,0.62,0.54,0.22,0.04,0	90.9%
NJN 91, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.3,0.35,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.28,0	90.8%
SAC 96, TOR 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.33,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.23,0.04,0	90.7%