NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	121		Excitement	5.4 [731]		MVP	Victor Oladipo (ORL): +29.0%
Chicago Bulls	114		Comeback	1.0 [200]		LVP	Channing Frye (ORL): -20.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Victor Oladipo	0.29	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.29	0.25	0.09	0.04	17	75%	0.29	0	0.00	10	80%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.03	24	62%	0.18	1	-0.04	5	20%	-0.07
Luke Ridnour	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	82%	0.07	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Willie Green	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	78%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	4	80%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Elfrid Payton	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	57%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Devyn Marble	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	45%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04
Channing Frye	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.15	-0.05	0.01	10	25%	-0.10	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	16	67%	0.17	4	-0.10	10	80%	0.02
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	48%	0.05	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.03
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	13	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	15	55%	0.04	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.05	10	55%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	6	43%	-0.06	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	26.7	16.0	23.2	2.6	41.1	134.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +52.1%

CHI -4.3%

CHI -9.4%

ORL +8.6%

ORL +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	13.3	15.1	15.1	119.8	111.8	104.2
season	14.9	15.5		100.4	105.4
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.5	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.3	12.2	14.1	14.9	13.3
CHI	17.7	12.7	17.2	13.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	72	73	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.22	8	-1	9	12.0	16.5	-4.45	15.2	14.8	0.37
Victor Oladipo	77	79	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.18	8	-1	9	12.6	15.5	-2.93	15.2	14.5	0.69
Channing Frye	76	75	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	-4	15	12.8	15.0	-2.20	15.6	13.5	2.09
Nikola Vucevic	82	83	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.22	6	1	5	12.6	16.4	-3.84	15.2	14.5	0.72
Devyn Marble	67	68	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	3	1	12.0	15.9	-3.97	15.5	14.2	1.28
Ben Gordon	36	35	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.22	-1	8	-9	15.4	12.2	3.24	14.2	15.5	-1.35
Maurice Harkless	18	18	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.10	0	7	-7	16.6	12.6	4.02	14.7	15.1	-0.41
Kyle O'Quinn	23	24	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.07	1	6	-5	16.1	12.5	3.66	14.3	15.3	-1.00
Willie Green	25	26	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	8	-9	15.1	12.7	2.36	13.6	15.6	-1.99
Luke Ridnour	30	32	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	8	-9	16.1	12.1	3.93	14.0	15.5	-1.54

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	22	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.10	2	-9	11	15.3	15.0	0.33	16.4	12.5	3.88
Taj Gibson	36	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-5	3	15.2	15.0	0.21	15.4	12.2	3.24
Tony Snell	45	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-2	-3	16.4	14.0	2.48	12.5	14.0	-1.54
Aaron Brooks	49	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-6	5	13.9	16.1	-2.23	14.7	12.0	2.69
Derrick Rose	68	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-5	3	15.1	15.0	0.13	12.4	15.1	-2.72
Kirk Hinrich	52	50	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	0	-7	14.8	15.4	-0.59	14.2	12.4	1.77
Joakim Noah	69	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.19	-6	-1	-5	14.9	15.4	-0.54	12.4	15.5	-3.09
Pau Gasol	77	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.19	-8	1	-9	15.1	15.0	0.08	12.3	16.1	-3.78
Jimmy Butler	92	90	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	-1	-5	15.1	14.4	0.73	13.2	14.4	-1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.35,0.39,0.32,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 108, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.03,0,0	95.0%
ATL 93, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,0,0	94.6%
HOU 88, DAL 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.2,0.25,0.17,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.19,0.07,0,0	94.4%