NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	90		Excitement	6.4 [537]		MVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): +10.9%
Denver Nuggets	93		Comeback	1.1 [1022]		LVP	Tobias Harris (ORL): -16.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	8	70%	0.16	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Victor Oladipo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	13	57%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.04	10	55%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	18	48%	-0.03	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Kyle O'Quinn	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	5	45%	0.00	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.05	0.04	13	44%	-0.04	4	-0.12	1	0%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.07	0.03	6	59%	0.11	1	-0.03	10	100%	0.05
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	5	79%	0.10	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	13	53%	0.06	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04
Alonzo Gee	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.04	14	72%	0.13	5	-0.14	4	50%	-0.03
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	9	39%	0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.6	25.2	16.6	24.3	2.7	37.4	134.3
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +43.4%

DEN +0.8%

DEN +13.0%

ORL -7.6%

DEN +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	13.7	15.1	90.0	93.9	104.2
season	14.9	14.6		100.4	103.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		106.6	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.0	13.6	16.2	15.0	15.2
DEN	12.8	15.8	12.6	13.8	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nicholson	45	45	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.32	12	-15	27	13.2	16.8	-3.64	15.1	12.6	2.44
Dewayne Dedmon	10	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	1	-5	17.1	15.0	2.11	14.6	13.7	0.90
Kyle O'Quinn	29	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-1	-1	17.5	14.3	3.22	13.5	13.8	-0.29
Tobias Harris	69	67	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.38	7	-10	17	14.6	16.5	-1.86	14.2	12.7	1.51
Elfrid Payton	65	63	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.32	4	-7	11	14.4	16.6	-2.20	14.6	12.2	2.34
Luke Ridnour	29	30	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	0	-3	16.8	14.5	2.24	12.3	14.4	-2.11
Nikola Vucevic	71	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-4	5	14.6	16.6	-2.00	14.3	12.3	2.07
Ben Gordon	28	29	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	7	-17	17.3	14.4	2.95	11.7	14.6	-2.90
Victor Oladipo	76	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.31	-1	-2	1	14.6	17.2	-2.64	14.3	12.0	2.32
Evan Fournier	36	36	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.18	-6	3	-9	16.3	14.6	1.68	12.7	14.3	-1.60
Channing Frye	42	42	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.10	-13	10	-23	16.1	14.5	1.63	11.5	15.4	-3.84

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Hickson	63	62	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.41	6	-3	9	12.5	15.8	-3.29	15.2	15.3	-0.10
Arron Afflalo	89	92	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-2	7	13.8	13.4	0.38	14.9	18.4	-3.45
Nate Robinson	55	54	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.44	-2	5	-7	13.3	14.3	-1.00	15.2	15.2	-0.03
Ty Lawson	71	72	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	0	3	13.6	14.1	-0.57	14.8	16.1	-1.26
Wilson Chandler	66	68	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.11	4	-1	5	14.5	12.2	2.33	15.1	15.3	-0.17
Darrell Arthur	37	36	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	0	3	12.8	14.3	-1.44	16.1	14.7	1.38
Alonzo Gee	16	15	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	4	-5	12.6	14.0	-1.40	18.9	14.6	4.31
Kenneth Faried	54	56	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.27	-5	8	-13	15.0	12.2	2.78	14.9	15.6	-0.78
Jusuf Nurkic	44	45	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.00	2	1	1	14.7	13.0	1.66	15.0	15.4	-0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.83,0.82,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 77, CHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.48,0.54,0.65,0.59,0.71,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.1%
MIL 90, ATL 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.69,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.63,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.98,0.98,1,1,1	93.6%
ATL 111, HOU 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.57,0.58,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.95,1,1	93.4%