NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	120		Excitement	7.3 [350]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +23.1%
Chicago Bulls	129		Comeback	5.3 [370]		LVP	Greivis Vasquez (TOR): -10.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.20	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2	0.15	0.11	0.06	22	63%	0.27	1	-0.06	10	60%	-0.03
Charles Hayes	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Tyler Hansbrough	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0	75%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	16	53%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.05	-0.03	0.04	10	73%	0.07	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.05	18	48%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Amir Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.06	0.02	10	46%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Greivis Vasquez	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.15	0.14	0.05	19	66%	0.23	2	-0.00	6	83%	-0.02
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.10	0.01	2	100%	0.20	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.07	0.02	10	71%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.14	0.01	0.04	16	63%	0.15	1	-0.05	11	100%	0.06
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	10	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	4	87%	0.11	3	-0.11	8	75%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	58%	0.05	4	-0.11	10	100%	0.06
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	4	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	32.8	15.6	24.5	2.3	45.6	147.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +42.6%

CHI +28.8%

TOR -2.5%

TOR -14.7%

TOR -4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHI	NBA	TOR	CHI	NBA
this game	16.3	12.9	15.1	121.2	131.6	104.2
season	15.6	15.5		109.1	105.4
opponent	15.2	15.0		102.5	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.6	15.5	17.2	15.1	16.3
CHI	12.4	13.3	16.2	10.6	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Hansbrough	11	11	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.06	8	-17	25	12.9	16.7	-3.80	16.9	12.4	4.47
Greivis Vasquez	27	25	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-11	13	16.1	16.4	-0.29	16.2	11.8	4.43
Amir Johnson	39	37	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.07	-2	-7	5	16.7	16.0	0.63	13.4	12.7	0.66
Charles Hayes	13	13	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	-2	-5	19.8	15.8	4.01	15.5	12.6	2.91
Lou Williams	54	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-4	-1	15.9	16.7	-0.79	12.6	13.4	-0.81
James Johnson	76	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.33	2	-11	13	14.9	20.7	-5.75	12.2	15.2	-3.01
Jonas Valanciunas	65	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	3	-15	17.7	13.5	4.24	12.9	13.0	-0.14
Kyle Lowry	78	78	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	2	-13	16.5	15.3	1.21	12.0	16.6	-4.66
Patrick Patterson	60	61	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.31	-7	-2	-5	16.0	16.7	-0.63	12.7	13.4	-0.66
Terrence Ross	72	72	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.14	-13	4	-17	16.3	16.1	0.19	12.8	13.2	-0.40

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	90	92	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-5	19	12.7	15.2	-2.52	16.3	15.6	0.77
Aaron Brooks	53	55	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	0	9	12.2	13.8	-1.55	15.2	17.6	-2.40
Joakim Noah	67	67	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	2	5	12.0	15.0	-3.06	15.7	17.6	-1.94
Nikola Mirotic	36	38	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	-1	11	13.8	12.5	1.33	16.2	16.3	-0.12
Derrick Rose	67	68	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.16	4	5	-1	11.8	15.3	-3.49	16.0	17.0	-1.00
Kirk Hinrich	40	39	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.04	6	3	3	14.3	12.0	2.38	17.0	15.8	1.14
Pau Gasol	57	57	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.07	6	3	3	13.3	12.5	0.78	17.1	15.2	1.94
Taj Gibson	36	36	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	14	-19	13.4	12.7	0.71	16.2	16.3	-0.10
Mike Dunleavy	44	43	-0.20	0.69	-0.89	-0.02	-6	15	-21	14.6	11.6	3.04	17.4	15.4	1.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.2,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, MEM 98	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.18,0.29,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.48,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.85,1,1	92.8%
POR 89, UTA 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.28,0.46,0.41,0.6,0.78,0.95,0.93,0.83,0.91,1	92.5%
MIA 73, DET 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.53,0.7,0.78,0.9,0.89,0.98,1,1	92.2%