NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	104		Excitement	7.7 [291]		MVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): +17.4%
Houston Rockets	97		Comeback	1.5 [372]		LVP	Dennis Schroder (ATL): -26.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.08	0.04	12	79%	0.28	2	-0.11	4	100%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0,0,-0.06,0,0,0,0.11,0.11	-0.04	0.15	-0.00	11	56%	0.23	4	-0.11	3	67%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.02	8	59%	0.11	0	0.00	6	67%	0.02
Al Horford	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.01	10	64%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.00	4	87%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Pero Antic	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	87%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Shelvin Mack	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	53%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mike Scott	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	3	40%	-0.03	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Dennis Schroder	-0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.18,-0.28,-0.28,-0.27	-0.10	-0.16	0.00	9	40%	-0.09	4	-0.18	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.08	0.02	14	50%	0.09	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nick Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.14,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	87%	0.11	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Tarik Black	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.04	10	73%	0.16	4	-0.17	6	83%	-0.02
Kostas Papanikolaou	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	0.01	14	46%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	11	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.08	0.02	13	54%	0.07	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.10	-0.01	16	47%	0.01	3	-0.13	6	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.8	27.3	14.7	26.8	1.7	35.3	131.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +53.0%

HOU -0.8%

HOU -14.2%

ATL +8.4%

ATL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	HOU	NBA	ATL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.3	16.5	15.1	110.6	104.3	104.2
season	14.9	14.3		106.7	105.6
opponent	14.9	15.4		103.1	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	12.2	16.1	16.3	13.0	14.3
HOU	15.5	19.1	15.0	17.0	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	64	63	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.31	14	-7	21	13.0	16.9	-3.89	16.9	15.7	1.22
Kyle Korver	76	77	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.42	8	-1	9	13.6	17.1	-3.42	16.1	18.6	-2.53
Paul Millsap	57	58	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	2	3	14.2	14.4	-0.15	16.8	16.1	0.66
Dennis Schroder	60	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	6	-5	14.4	14.1	0.36	16.5	16.5	0.02
DeMarre Carroll	65	65	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.25	1	6	-5	14.9	13.0	1.91	16.9	15.7	1.16
Shelvin Mack	34	35	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.08	6	1	5	14.1	14.4	-0.36	16.5	16.5	-0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	24	24	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.13	6	1	5	14.1	14.3	-0.22	15.7	16.8	-1.16
Mike Scott	37	35	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	5	-3	14.4	14.2	0.15	16.1	16.8	-0.66
Kent Bazemore	22	20	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	10	-13	15.5	13.9	1.58	18.1	16.1	2.00
Pero Antic	31	30	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.07	-5	12	-17	16.5	13.2	3.28	15.7	16.9	-1.22

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Johnson	16	15	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-11	15	16.0	16.6	-0.64	14.6	14.2	0.37
Kostas Papanikolaou	31	34	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-8	9	15.3	17.1	-1.81	15.2	13.8	1.39
Donatas Motiejunas	46	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	-1	-5	17.8	15.3	2.57	15.0	13.5	1.51
James Harden	78	79	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-9	11	15.9	19.7	-3.82	14.0	16.0	-2.04
Tarik Black	11	12	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.09	-12	5	-17	17.2	16.4	0.74	11.3	14.7	-3.39
Dwight Howard	81	80	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.40	2	-9	11	16.4	17.4	-1.02	14.3	13.9	0.42
Jason Terry	44	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.16	-8	1	-9	16.3	16.8	-0.48	13.7	14.8	-1.06
Trevor Ariza	80	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.39	-6	-1	-5	16.4	17.3	-0.91	14.3	14.1	0.18
Patrick Beverley	78	79	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.33	-12	5	-17	17.3	12.6	4.68	14.4	13.7	0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.19,0.15,0.18,0.27,0.25,0.18,0.26,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 94, GSW 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.16,0.25,0.23,0.16,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.16,0.01,0	90.4%
SEA 91, POR 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.44,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.53,0.46,0.65,0.28,0	90.2%
LAL 104, SEA 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.09,0	90.2%