NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	129		Excitement	14.1 [6]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +84.8%
San Antonio Spurs	119		Comeback	69.4 [18]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -67.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.85	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.11,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.85	0.17	0.71	0.03	29	65%	0.98	4	-0.13	8	87%	0.09
Steve Blake	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.04	0.29	-0.00	7	62%	0.35	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.23,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.04	0.15	-0.00	8	75%	0.27	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	4	80%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Thomas Robinson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Allen Crabbe	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	0.05	-0.13	0.05	27	54%	-0.02	3	-0.11	5	100%	0.04
Wesley Matthews	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.04	-0.19	-0.02	19	38%	-0.21	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.24,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.74,0.64,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59	0.59	0.05	0.53	-0.01	21	60%	0.70	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.02	0.17	-0.01	10	45%	0.19	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.16,0.35,0.16,0.02,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	24	56%	0.22	1	-0.10	9	89%	0.06
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	6	78%	0.19	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.05
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.04	4	87%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.03	0.02	14	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	7	13%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.25,-0.38,-0.38,-0.44,-0.44,-0.4,-0.4,-0.54,-0.54,-0.54,-0.54,-0.54,-0.54,-0.6,-0.67,-0.67,-0.67,-0.67	-0.67	-0.21	-0.46	-0.01	17	30%	-0.26	6	-0.41	3	33%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2		OT3	Total
this game	22.3	3.4	30.6	15.7	28.8	2.8	34.2	1.5	16.3	1.7	13.7	1.8	13.9	186.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	2.0	17.8	2.0	17.8	2.0	17.8	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +31.9%

POR +0.5%

SAS -11.6%

POR +48.6%

SAS -19.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAS	NBA	POR	SAS	NBA
this game	15.4	16.2	15.1	107.5	100.0	104.2
season	15.3	15.4		106.5	106.9
opponent	14.9	15.0		101.1	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
POR	16.0	14.6	14.5	16.4	15.7	15.4
SAS	17.5	15.4	14.3	16.4	17.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	63	64	0.97	-0.47	1.44	0.47	17	-7	24	15.1	15.8	-0.71	16.7	15.7	0.95
Damian Lillard	101	101	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.23	20	-10	30	15.4	15.5	-0.07	16.2	16.3	-0.14
Steve Blake	64	64	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.33	8	2	6	15.5	15.3	0.25	17.1	15.2	1.93
LaMarcus Aldridge	101	100	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	0	10	15.3	16.1	-0.76	16.2	16.5	-0.30
Wesley Matthews	94	92	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	2	6	15.8	13.9	1.96	16.3	15.8	0.52
Thomas Robinson	49	48	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.15	16	-6	22	16.7	14.5	2.16	16.6	16.0	0.61
Allen Crabbe	25	25	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.01	-6	16	-22	15.5	15.4	0.08	14.7	16.6	-1.90
Joel Freeland	41	40	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.26	0	10	-10	14.4	15.9	-1.56	15.9	16.4	-0.52
CJ McCollum	26	24	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	0.06	-12	22	-34	14.0	15.8	-1.81	14.5	16.7	-2.15
Chris Kaman	36	37	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.01	-11	21	-32	15.5	15.4	0.08	15.8	16.4	-0.55

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tiago Splitter	54	53	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.55	-14	4	-18	15.7	16.6	-0.91	14.5	16.2	-1.73
Aron Baynes	4	5	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.03	1	-11	12	11.5	16.4	-4.88	18.8	15.3	3.53
Cory Joseph	81	80	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.11	3	-13	16	16.7	15.2	1.56	15.5	15.3	0.21
Austin Daye	24	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.14	-10	0	-10	14.8	16.6	-1.74	15.4	15.4	-0.03
Danny Green	81	83	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.28	4	-14	18	16.6	15.3	1.33	15.1	16.0	-0.88
Tim Duncan	80	80	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-13	16	16.7	15.3	1.43	15.2	15.8	-0.65
Kyle Anderson	61	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.40	6	-16	22	16.9	15.5	1.33	16.0	14.7	1.32
Boris Diaw	51	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.42	5	-15	20	16.5	16.0	0.41	16.1	14.9	1.18
Manu Ginobili	61	61	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.16	-15	5	-20	15.3	17.2	-1.96	14.0	16.8	-2.78
Matt Bonner	40	42	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	0	-10	15.0	16.8	-1.80	15.1	15.6	-0.49
Marco Belinelli	58	58	-0.98	0.48	-1.47	-0.31	-23	13	-36	16.6	15.9	0.72	17.0	13.9	3.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.7,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.66,0.75,0.52,0.68,0.58,0.5,0.61,0.79,0.94,0.95,0.54,0.69,0.84,0.89,0.73,0.54,0.25,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 122, BKN 118	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.62,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.79,0.57,0.72,0.54,0.69,0.64,0.57,0.42,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.68,0.92,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.04,0	83.3%
BKN 148, CLE 139	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.67,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.6,0.85,0.55,0.43,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.58,0.54,0.39,0.29,0.77,0.58,0.46,0.47,0.22,0.02,0.04,0	82.6%
HOU 104, UTA 116	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.6,0.53,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.54,0.86,0.91,0.99,1,1	81.6%