NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	117		Excitement	6.3 [556]		MVP	Derrick Williams (SAC): +18.1%
Sacramento Kings	109		Comeback	1.1 [760]		LVP	Lou Williams (TOR): -8.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.17	0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.17	0.06	0.05	-0.07	21	56%	0.21	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Terrence Ross	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	15	67%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.04	-0.02	10	60%	0.11	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	-0.01	0.02	13	70%	0.11	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	68%	0.11	2	-0.03	10	90%	0.04
Greivis Vasquez	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	10	60%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	4	80%	0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Lou Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	9	20%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.06	-0.00	12	67%	0.18	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.04	-0.02	17	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.00	3	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	83%	0.07	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	60%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	16	57%	0.12	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.01
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.01	11	54%	0.01	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	69%	0.04	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	29%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.7	30.1	15.4	34.3	2.8	32.0	143.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +30.2%

SAC -4.8%

TOR +13.3%

TOR +14.4%

SAC -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAC	NBA	TOR	SAC	NBA
this game	16.5	14.7	15.1	125.8	119.8	104.2
season	15.6	14.9		109.1	103.7
opponent	14.8	15.0		107.6	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.0	15.4	14.1	22.3	16.5
SAC	14.0	13.3	15.3	16.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	73	72	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.08	20	-12	32	16.4	16.9	-0.51	14.8	14.5	0.27
Amir Johnson	62	61	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.21	15	-7	22	17.2	15.3	1.89	14.7	14.9	-0.24
Jonas Valanciunas	64	64	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.20	13	-5	18	16.2	17.3	-1.11	14.7	14.9	-0.22
Terrence Ross	55	56	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.15	10	-2	12	17.9	14.6	3.29	15.0	14.3	0.78
Greivis Vasquez	58	57	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-2	12	15.5	18.3	-2.74	15.4	13.6	1.74
James Johnson	55	53	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.31	-4	12	-16	16.6	16.5	0.13	14.1	15.6	-1.54
Tyler Hansbrough	18	16	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	11	-14	15.7	16.7	-1.02	13.6	15.0	-1.35
Patrick Patterson	42	41	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.12	-9	17	-26	16.5	16.6	-0.09	15.4	14.2	1.19
Lou Williams	38	35	-0.18	0.69	-0.87	0.17	-12	20	-32	16.3	16.7	-0.39	14.1	15.2	-1.10

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nik Stauskas	32	34	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.29	13	-21	34	13.5	15.4	-1.86	16.5	16.6	-0.03
Carl Landry	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-8	8	11.0	15.0	-3.95	13.7	16.7	-3.08
Ramon Sessions	53	56	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.44	14	-22	36	14.2	15.5	-1.36	17.8	14.7	3.11
Derrick Williams	24	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.26	6	-14	20	15.8	14.3	1.49	21.0	15.1	5.91
Jason Thompson	35	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.09	-9	1	-10	15.1	14.5	0.61	17.0	16.3	0.71
Ryan Hollins	15	14	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.16	-13	5	-18	14.5	14.8	-0.32	12.9	17.2	-4.26
Omri Casspi	45	49	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	-6	4	14.0	15.5	-1.50	15.5	17.7	-2.28
Reggie Evans	60	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-10	12	15.3	13.6	1.70	16.5	16.6	-0.02
Darren Collison	38	37	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.17	-22	14	-36	15.5	14.2	1.36	14.7	17.8	-3.11
Ben McLemore	75	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.09	-15	7	-22	15.0	13.6	1.42	16.7	16.1	0.61
Rudy Gay	73	75	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.17	-14	6	-20	14.8	14.6	0.16	16.5	16.8	-0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 101, LAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.32,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.1,0.19,0.17,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.02,0	93.9%
DAL 110, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.33,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.18,0.15,0.01,0.03,0,0	93.8%
HOU 89, MEM 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.4%