NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	97		Excitement	4.9 [840]		MVP	Marcin Gortat (WAS): +16.2%
Indiana Pacers	90		Comeback	1.0 [941]		LVP	Chris Copeland (IND): -24.4%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcin Gortat	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	-0.00	8	75%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	8	72%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Kris Humphries	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasual Butler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	7	64%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	13	56%	0.08	4	-0.08	6	67%	0.00
Andre Miller	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	3	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Otto Porter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	13	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	10	80%	0.01
Nene	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	16	52%	0.02	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damjan Rudez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.02	4	112%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Donald Sloan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	10	59%	0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	2	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.01	0.05	19	57%	0.06	3	-0.07	11	64%	-0.00
Lavoy Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Shayne Whittington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	0.00	0.00	4	42%	-0.03	4	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Copeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24	-0.24	-0.14	-0.09	0.01	19	33%	-0.19	3	-0.05	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.7	25.3	15.6	26.0	1.8	33.2	128.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +27.2%

WAS +6.2%

WAS +14.9%

WAS +1.8%

IND -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	IND	NBA	WAS	IND	NBA
this game	14.9	15.4	15.1	101.0	95.7	104.2
season	15.1	16.0		102.9	102.3
opponent	15.0	15.3		102.0	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	12.5	17.4	14.1	15.8	14.9
IND	16.3	13.2	16.6	15.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	57	57	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.26	10	-3	13	13.7	16.7	-3.08	15.5	15.2	0.27
Garrett Temple	62	61	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-5	17	14.0	16.5	-2.45	16.4	13.6	2.77
John Wall	71	68	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.22	8	-1	9	14.0	17.4	-3.36	16.0	13.8	2.21
Marcin Gortat	48	50	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.28	5	2	3	15.1	14.7	0.42	16.5	14.1	2.38
Nene	64	63	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.19	6	1	5	13.9	17.0	-3.12	15.6	15.1	0.51
Kevin Seraphin	39	38	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	3	1	15.6	14.5	1.09	14.3	16.1	-1.78
Andre Miller	25	26	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	8	-9	17.4	14.0	3.36	13.8	16.0	-2.21
Otto Porter	41	37	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	8	-9	15.7	14.3	1.34	14.7	15.9	-1.16
Kris Humphries	38	35	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.07	-3	10	-13	16.6	13.8	2.71	15.1	15.6	-0.46
Rasual Butler	35	35	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.08	-5	12	-17	16.7	13.9	2.83	13.8	16.3	-2.51

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shayne Whittington	17	16	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.07	4	-11	15	16.7	15.1	1.59	14.1	15.1	-1.03
A.J. Price	33	34	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.11	5	-12	17	14.3	16.0	-1.65	16.3	14.1	2.18
Lavoy Allen	20	23	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-1	-5	16.2	15.2	1.01	16.8	14.3	2.51
Damjan Rudez	49	52	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-2	-3	15.4	15.4	0.05	15.1	14.7	0.43
Ian Mahinmi	49	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.38	7	-14	21	15.7	15.0	0.69	16.5	13.2	3.22
Roy Hibbert	23	23	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.18	-17	10	-27	16.4	15.1	1.31	13.1	15.5	-2.41
Luis Scola	57	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-2	-3	14.7	16.4	-1.70	14.4	15.7	-1.31
Solomon Hill	84	86	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-2	-3	15.5	14.8	0.68	14.3	19.8	-5.45
Chris Copeland	77	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-6	5	14.8	18.1	-3.31	15.0	14.7	0.22
Donald Sloan	61	62	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.18	-12	5	-17	16.0	14.3	1.65	14.1	16.3	-2.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.09,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.03,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 97, CHI 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.3,0.26,0.15,0.29,0.32,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.02,0,0	94.2%
PHI 118, MIN 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.15,0.16,0.01,0.04,0	94.0%
ORL 94, LAC 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	93.7%