NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	95		Excitement	7.0 [420]		MVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): +21.7%
Detroit Pistons	98		Comeback	2.0 [664]		LVP	Josh Smith (DET): -14.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jared Dudley	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.00	4	90%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	9	44%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
John Henson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kendall Marshall	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01	-0.02	0.04	0.02	11	61%	0.15	5	-0.15	6	100%	0.02
Jerryd Bayless	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
O.J. Mayo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	9	32%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jabari Parker	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	14	56%	0.13	4	-0.15	4	50%	-0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	8	45%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.32,0.28,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.09	0.01	11	79%	0.25	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.00	12	58%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.03	0.14	0.00	8	62%	0.22	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.00	8	78%	0.18	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	7	45%	0.00	2	-0.08	6	67%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.01	-0.01	14	37%	-0.06	4	-0.09	10	40%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.5	28.9	16.8	24.4	1.7	35.0	135.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +47.6%

MIL -10.0%

DET +20.3%

MIL -11.4%

DET +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	14.5	17.2	15.1	103.3	108.9	104.2
season	14.5	15.7		100.5	104.0
opponent	15.3	15.7		105.0	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	15.2	15.2	13.7	14.5
DET	15.4	18.4	18.3	16.9	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Henson	13	13	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-7	11	15.5	14.3	1.20	14.0	17.7	-3.70
Ersan Ilyasova	42	39	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.15	-6	3	-9	14.3	14.7	-0.46	17.4	17.0	0.48
Kendall Marshall	42	38	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-2	1	13.6	15.3	-1.68	18.4	16.3	2.08
Jared Dudley	34	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-7	11	16.0	13.7	2.32	18.0	16.6	1.36
O.J. Mayo	34	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-6	9	16.9	13.1	3.85	17.2	17.1	0.06
Larry Sanders	48	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.00	-9	6	-15	14.3	14.7	-0.37	17.1	17.3	-0.21
Brandon Knight	68	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-1	-1	13.6	17.2	-3.59	16.4	19.5	-3.11
Zaza Pachulia	31	31	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-5	7	14.4	14.6	-0.24	18.6	16.4	2.26
Jabari Parker	58	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	4	-11	13.7	16.0	-2.32	16.6	18.0	-1.36
Giannis Antetokounmpo	50	51	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.57	3	-6	9	14.7	14.3	0.46	17.0	17.4	-0.48
Jerryd Bayless	40	41	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	3	-9	15.0	14.1	0.87	17.3	17.0	0.28

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Monroe	50	51	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.26	13	-10	23	17.0	17.3	-0.28	13.5	15.8	-2.33
Caron Butler	67	67	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.52	-4	7	-11	17.1	17.5	-0.42	15.0	13.1	1.91
Brandon Jennings	60	61	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	-5	13	16.9	17.7	-0.80	14.0	15.5	-1.56
Josh Smith	70	72	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	-1	5	16.1	21.0	-4.99	13.8	17.0	-3.24
D.J. Augustin	40	41	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.35	0	3	-3	17.6	16.8	0.78	15.9	13.4	2.42
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	58	61	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	-2	7	16.4	18.5	-2.07	13.5	16.5	-2.93
Jonas Jerebko	17	18	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	4	-5	20.8	16.3	4.44	17.2	13.9	3.30
Joel Anthony	15	15	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	3	-3	12.8	18.0	-5.24	15.4	14.3	1.06
Kyle Singler	26	25	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.17	-6	9	-15	18.5	16.6	1.93	15.2	14.3	0.95
Andre Drummond	47	49	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	7	-11	19.3	14.8	4.51	15.1	13.9	1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.68,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.89,0.97,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 93, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.48,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.7%
MIL 98, SEA 104	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.81,0.78,0.94,0.9,0.97,0.99,1	93.1%
CLE 111, WAS 119	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.84,0.98,0.99,1	93.1%