NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	91		Excitement	3.1 [1164]		MVP	Serge Ibaka (OKC): +16.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder	102		Comeback	1.0 [480]		LVP	Wilson Chandler (DEN): -9.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	11	58%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	71%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	6	58%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0	0.05	-0.00	0.05	12	69%	0.11	7	-0.11	12	67%	-0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	6	42%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	8	39%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Gee	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	0.00	-0.02	12	19%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.01	19	61%	0.19	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Perry Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	-0.07	17	53%	0.10	3	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.14	0.00	0.06	7	85%	0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	10	59%	0.02	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Roberson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	67%	0.02	3	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	-0.06	11	27%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Lance Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.01	9	44%	-0.02	2	-0.02	9	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.8	1.8	29.4	15.4	27.5	2.8	36.2	142.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +27.4%

OKC +2.4%

OKC +4.8%

OKC +14.0%

OKC +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	13.7	15.8	15.1	93.8	104.1	104.2
season	14.6	14.5		103.4	105.7
opponent	15.0	15.3		103.5	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	14.1	14.7	10.8	13.7
OKC	14.1	15.3	17.4	16.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jusuf Nurkic	12	12	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	-9	7	13.1	13.8	-0.70	14.3	16.0	-1.70
Alonzo Gee	35	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.21	5	-16	21	11.0	15.2	-4.18	16.8	15.2	1.53
Randy Foye	43	44	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.32	5	-16	21	13.4	13.9	-0.47	16.8	15.0	1.76
Darrell Arthur	19	20	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	-5	-1	13.9	13.7	0.24	15.0	16.0	-1.04
JaVale McGee	41	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-11	11	12.6	14.5	-1.89	17.0	15.0	1.93
Nate Robinson	26	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-4	-3	15.6	13.0	2.56	17.2	15.4	1.89
Timofey Mozgov	36	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.02	-8	-3	-5	15.2	12.8	2.46	15.0	16.3	-1.35
Arron Afflalo	73	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-12	13	13.5	14.2	-0.73	15.8	15.8	-0.01
Danilo Gallinari	41	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.09	-12	1	-13	14.9	12.8	2.04	15.2	16.2	-1.00
Wilson Chandler	37	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.08	-13	2	-15	13.5	13.8	-0.39	15.2	16.2	-1.07
Ty Lawson	71	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-7	3	13.0	15.6	-2.56	15.4	17.2	-1.89
Kenneth Faried	51	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.10	-14	3	-17	15.1	12.2	2.95	15.6	16.0	-0.43

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Perry Jones	85	82	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.09	13	-2	15	15.8	16.3	-0.55	13.5	15.1	-1.62
Andre Roberson	74	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.01	14	-3	17	15.0	18.2	-3.21	13.7	13.7	-0.01
Nick Collison	46	46	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	2	7	16.4	15.3	1.02	14.4	13.1	1.31
Sebastian Telfair	78	79	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	6	-1	16.0	15.2	0.79	13.4	15.0	-1.59
Serge Ibaka	63	62	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.11	6	5	1	15.6	16.3	-0.71	13.6	13.9	-0.38
Steven Adams	53	55	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.00	9	2	7	16.0	15.7	0.30	14.1	13.2	0.86
Kendrick Perkins	40	38	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.23	0	11	-11	16.4	15.4	0.93	13.8	13.6	0.15
Lance Thomas	51	50	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.23	-1	12	-13	16.1	15.5	0.57	13.6	13.8	-0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.85,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 94, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.95,0.79,0.97,0.99,1	96.8%
CLE 95, SEA 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.96,1,1	96.5%
ATL 89, HOU 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%