NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	111		Excitement	8.0 [257]		MVP	Andre Drummond (DET): +17.2%
Detroit Pistons	115		Comeback	25.4 [124]		LVP	Jared Sullinger (BOS): -23.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	8	75%	0.15	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.02
Jerryd Bayless	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.08	0.12	-0.04	-0.01	19	66%	0.15	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Phil Pressey	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.03	0.00	8	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05	-0.01	-0.07	-0.03	21	50%	0.00	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Chris Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Babb	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.24,-0.24	0.04	-0.26	0.02	20	55%	-0.15	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.09	0.02	11	79%	0.22	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.15	0.00	0.05	12	72%	0.10	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.10	-0.00	6	50%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.08	-0.01	5	37%	0.07	0	0.00	6	100%	0.07
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.08	0.01	15	57%	0.01	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	9	55%	0.02	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Peyton Siva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.06,-0.19,-0.09	-0.09	0.04	-0.12	0.01	17	57%	0.13	4	-0.22	12	83%	0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	35.4	16.8	25.1	2.6	35.5	140.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -5.6%

DET +48.8%

DET +14.0%

BOS -7.7%

DET +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	16.4	14.9	15.1	120.7	125.0	105.2
season	15.4	15.0		101.2	104.7
opponent	15.0	15.0		108.4	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.3	16.8	15.1	18.5	16.4
DET	17.4	16.0	14.2	12.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Babb	25	26	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.07	0	-4	4	16.3	16.4	-0.13	15.4	14.7	0.69
Joel Anthony	6	5	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-2	0	11.8	16.7	-4.90	14.4	14.9	-0.52
Phil Pressey	73	72	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.30	9	-13	22	16.1	17.8	-1.73	14.4	16.5	-2.06
Kelly Olynyk	46	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	0	-4	15.7	17.2	-1.52	15.2	14.6	0.57
Jared Sullinger	68	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.54	6	-10	16	17.1	14.6	2.48	14.4	16.4	-1.99
Jerryd Bayless	77	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.48	0	-4	4	16.9	13.7	3.20	15.0	14.3	0.71
Chris Johnson	22	21	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.05	-16	12	-28	15.5	16.7	-1.20	14.3	15.1	-0.72
Brandon Bass	64	63	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.30	-8	4	-12	16.7	15.7	0.95	15.3	14.1	1.15
Jeff Green	79	79	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	1	-6	16.5	15.8	0.75	15.2	13.2	2.02

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	31	31	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.39	16	-12	28	13.4	15.7	-2.27	18.3	15.4	2.88
Rodney Stuckey	61	61	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.37	13	-9	22	14.5	15.7	-1.28	16.8	15.6	1.16
Andre Drummond	78	77	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.39	11	-7	18	14.6	16.8	-2.23	16.2	17.4	-1.18
Kyle Singler	72	70	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.36	12	-8	20	14.7	15.6	-0.97	16.7	15.6	1.08
Brandon Jennings	65	65	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.55	-2	6	-8	15.0	14.5	0.53	15.7	18.1	-2.35
Peyton Siva	27	27	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.17	6	-2	8	14.5	15.0	-0.53	18.1	15.7	2.35
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	13	15	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.06	-10	14	-24	16.1	14.7	1.38	16.7	16.4	0.38
Josh Smith	52	53	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	0.01	-12	16	-28	15.8	13.7	2.06	15.2	18.0	-2.75
Greg Monroe	61	61	-0.45	0.95	-1.39	-0.04	-14	18	-32	15.8	13.2	2.56	15.9	17.4	-1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.27,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.53,0.35,0.61,0.39,0.29,0.33,0.53,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 114, WAS 115	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.08,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.25,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.58,1	92.5%
ATL 107, SAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.27,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.08,0.32,0.42,1	91.2%
HOU 94, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.2,0.13,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.17,0.23,0.29,0.21,0.39,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.73,1	90.7%