NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	100		Excitement	7.5 [333]		MVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): +26.9%
Dallas Mavericks	103		Comeback	4.8 [514]		LVP	Monta Ellis (DAL): -23.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Thompson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	7	69%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Quincy Acy	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray McCallum	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	17	47%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	55%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Rudy Gay	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07	0.01	-0.01	0.07	19	62%	0.14	7	-0.22	10	80%	0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.08	0.03	15	52%	0.06	3	-0.16	3	33%	-0.02
Ben McLemore	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.17,-0.16	-0.00	-0.15	0.01	9	53%	0.05	2	-0.21	1	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.11	0.17	0.01	7	82%	0.27	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.05	-0.02	10	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.02,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	10	63%	0.14	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.06
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	8	83%	0.12	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	11	50%	0.05	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	4	21%	-0.07	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.06
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.07,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.2,-0.23	-0.23	-0.01	-0.17	0.05	12	53%	-0.08	3	-0.15	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	3.3	31.2	16.8	28.5	2.7	40.1	147.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC -1.2%

DAL +27.7%

SAC -16.1%

DAL +35.1%

DAL +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	16.3	14.2	15.1	105.3	109.6	105.2
season	15.4	15.3		104.5	109.0
opponent	15.0	14.7		107.0	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	18.0	15.5	14.7	17.0	16.3
DAL	14.0	15.1	16.0	11.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Thompson	52	52	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.01	6	-9	15	16.5	16.0	0.50	15.0	13.1	1.90
Quincy Acy	2	2	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.03	0	-3	3	12.5	16.4	-3.88	0.5	14.5	-13.97
Derrick Williams	20	19	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-4	5	15.9	16.4	-0.50	15.1	13.9	1.11
Travis Outlaw	41	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.06	-1	-2	1	15.9	16.6	-0.78	13.9	14.4	-0.52
Reggie Evans	56	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.25	-1	-2	1	16.5	16.0	0.46	15.0	12.9	2.14
Rudy Gay	85	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-2	1	16.3	15.9	0.44	14.0	15.6	-1.60
Ben McLemore	67	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.40	-2	-1	-1	16.2	16.6	-0.44	14.0	14.5	-0.47
Ray McCallum	95	94	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	16.3	0.0	16.29	14.2	0.0	14.17
DeMarcus Cousins	57	56	-0.87	0.37	-1.25	-0.46	-14	11	-25	16.6	15.9	0.71	13.3	15.4	-2.06

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	57	59	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.37	12	-9	21	14.2	14.2	0.01	16.5	16.0	0.52
Jose Calderon	75	74	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.41	10	-7	17	13.8	15.5	-1.63	16.4	16.0	0.38
Samuel Dalembert	48	49	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.38	11	-8	19	13.4	15.0	-1.58	16.7	15.9	0.74
Monta Ellis	72	75	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.43	2	1	1	14.1	14.4	-0.31	16.4	16.0	0.31
Shawn Marion	66	66	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	0	3	14.0	14.5	-0.42	16.0	16.9	-0.87
Jae Crowder	23	26	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.13	-2	5	-7	14.2	14.2	0.06	15.1	16.7	-1.62
DeJuan Blair	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.11	-5	8	-13	13.6	14.2	-0.64	14.6	16.5	-1.92
Brandan Wright	37	36	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.05	-5	8	-13	15.0	13.6	1.32	16.6	16.1	0.42
Devin Harris	32	32	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.02	-6	9	-15	15.0	13.7	1.26	16.3	16.3	0.07
Vince Carter	50	49	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.08	-5	8	-13	14.6	13.6	1.00	16.6	16.0	0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.68,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.69,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.55,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.72,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.34,0.17,0.31,0.64,0.77,0.9,1	92.3%
NYK 87, IND 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.83,0.85,1	91.9%
DEN 108, POR 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.18,0.1,0.37,0.86,0.99,1	91.3%