NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	109		Excitement	6.8 [470]		MVP	Randy Foye (DEN): +22.3%
Denver Nuggets	118		Comeback	3.8 [592]		LVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): -11.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Singler	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	8	81%	0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.02	12	67%	0.12	2	-0.04	9	44%	-0.04
Jonas Jerebko	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.06,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	13	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Josh Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	17	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	11	35%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Randy Foye	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.04	0.15	-0.04	18	59%	0.30	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.09	-0.01	19	60%	0.25	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.01	11	59%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	5	79%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Quincy Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	8	58%	0.08	2	-0.06	10	70%	-0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	9	61%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	8	55%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.05
Jan Vesely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	3	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.8	27.3	15.6	27.2	3.5	33.4	133.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +57.8%

DEN +1.7%

DET -13.4%

DEN +3.7%

DEN +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	13.0	15.1	107.9	116.8	105.2
season	15.0	14.0		104.7	104.5
opponent	14.9	15.0		106.4	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.7	15.3	17.7	14.5	15.5
DEN	12.5	11.4	12.8	15.5	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	48	48	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.10	-5	-4	-1	16.3	14.8	1.44	12.5	13.4	-0.92
Greg Monroe	84	84	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-11	13	15.0	18.2	-3.18	13.4	10.9	2.45
Brandon Jennings	64	63	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-4	-1	16.5	13.8	2.68	12.3	14.1	-1.76
Jonas Jerebko	35	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	-7	5	16.0	15.3	0.67	11.5	13.8	-2.30
Kyle Singler	55	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.07	-10	1	-11	14.8	16.4	-1.53	13.3	12.6	0.68
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	59	59	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.28	-1	-8	7	16.2	14.6	1.61	12.2	14.0	-1.83
Rodney Stuckey	78	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-5	1	15.2	16.6	-1.33	13.6	10.9	2.71
Will Bynum	47	48	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	14.7	16.3	-1.60	13.5	12.5	0.91
Charlie Villanueva	35	34	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.24	-13	4	-17	15.3	15.6	-0.29	14.2	12.4	1.85

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Randolph	36	36	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.27	15	-6	21	14.3	12.3	2.02	15.8	15.4	0.38
Aaron Brooks	97	97	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.23	12	-3	15	13.1	9.2	3.88	15.7	12.2	3.42
Randy Foye	95	94	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-2	13	12.9	14.5	-1.62	15.5	16.6	-1.11
JJ Hickson	52	53	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.33	5	4	1	13.5	12.5	0.99	15.3	15.8	-0.53
Darrell Arthur	42	42	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.30	5	4	1	11.7	13.9	-2.13	16.6	14.8	1.86
Kenneth Faried	67	68	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.06	5	4	1	13.7	11.5	2.19	15.3	16.0	-0.74
Timofey Mozgov	40	39	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	6	-3	12.6	13.2	-0.63	15.1	15.8	-0.66
Jan Vesely	7	6	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	8	-7	11.7	13.1	-1.36	17.5	15.4	2.09
Quincy Miller	16	16	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	16	-23	11.7	13.2	-1.54	13.8	15.9	-2.05
Evan Fournier	53	54	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.06	-5	14	-19	12.4	13.6	-1.19	15.6	15.5	0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.8,0.85,0.89,0.98,0.96,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 96, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.18,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.95,1,1,1	94.2%
CLE 105, MEM 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.41,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.52,0.46,0.62,0.74,0.89,0.91,0.86,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%
MIN 88, PHI 96	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.73,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.98,1	93.0%