NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	115		Excitement	12.7 [17]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +37.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	120		Comeback	9.6 [224]		LVP	Nate Wolters (MIL): -26.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.08	0.03	10	60%	0.17	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07	0.06	0.04	0.03	17	53%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Adrien	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	64%	0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
John Henson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.28,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	0.05	-0.13	-0.01	16	56%	0.01	2	-0.08	9	67%	-0.13
Zaza Pachulia	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.33,-0.33,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	0.01	-0.21	0.03	14	55%	-0.11	3	-0.12	3	100%	0.03
Brandon Knight	-0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25	-0.01	-0.24	0.00	20	51%	-0.12	4	-0.14	7	71%	-0.07
Nate Wolters	-0.27	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.15	-0.13	-0.01	5	29%	-0.06	5	-0.21	4	50%	-0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.33,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.15	0.23	0.00	15	74%	0.51	3	-0.13	5	100%	0.10
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.04	0.03	12	77%	0.22	1	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,0,0.1,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.16	0.16	-0.11	0.25	-0.01	21	43%	0.24	5	-0.08	5	100%	0.02
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.09	-0.07	0.05	15	62%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	47%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	-0.04	-0.01	8	6%	-0.16	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.17,0.17,0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	0.06	-0.23	0.00	12	60%	0.02	1	-0.20	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	28.2	15.3	29.3	2.5	37.6	1.7	19.9	159.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +47.3%

POR +31.9%

MIL -47.4%

POR +14.2%

POR +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	POR	NBA	MIL	POR	NBA
this game	14.0	14.2	15.1	101.8	106.2	105.2
season	15.7	15.1		101.4	109.6
opponent	14.8	15.1		106.5	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	12.5	14.5	15.2	15.1	11.7	14.0
POR	14.1	14.3	15.5	14.2	11.4	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	43	42	-0.14	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	2	-9	14.1	13.9	0.14	13.5	14.5	-0.97
Nate Wolters	81	82	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.26	4	-9	13	13.6	14.8	-1.20	14.5	13.1	1.42
Ersan Ilyasova	49	50	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-7	9	13.6	14.3	-0.76	15.1	13.4	1.72
Zaza Pachulia	80	79	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.35	4	-9	13	13.6	14.8	-1.18	14.4	13.6	0.77
Jeff Adrien	41	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	4	-13	14.9	13.5	1.44	12.9	14.9	-2.07
John Henson	33	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.00	-9	4	-13	14.8	13.6	1.18	13.6	14.4	-0.77
Khris Middleton	82	82	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.42	5	-10	15	14.2	13.4	0.86	15.0	12.0	2.93
Brandon Knight	80	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-3	1	13.4	15.3	-1.91	14.7	13.0	1.72
Ramon Sessions	76	76	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.26	-13	8	-21	14.4	13.1	1.30	12.7	17.1	-4.30

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	75	75	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-5	15	13.3	15.9	-2.65	14.4	13.2	1.20
Damian Lillard	83	85	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	2	1	14.3	13.9	0.35	13.4	15.8	-2.44
Nicolas Batum	92	93	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	3	-1	14.4	13.0	1.48	13.6	15.7	-2.15
Robin Lopez	78	80	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.42	0	5	-5	14.7	12.9	1.76	13.8	14.5	-0.75
Wesley Matthews	87	89	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	4	-3	14.5	12.9	1.66	13.9	14.2	-0.34
Thomas Robinson	36	34	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.05	5	0	5	12.4	15.0	-2.56	14.6	13.7	0.91
Will Barton	24	23	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.02	3	2	1	14.1	14.2	-0.10	16.1	13.4	2.64
CJ McCollum	16	14	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	3	-1	12.9	14.4	-1.50	15.2	13.8	1.41
Meyers Leonard	35	33	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	2	1	12.9	14.7	-1.76	14.5	13.8	0.75
Dorell Wright	39	39	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	9	-13	16.4	13.0	3.36	13.4	14.3	-0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.52,0.37,0.53,0.71,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.68,0.73,0.54,0.74,0.57,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 106, DET 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.34,0.39,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.77,0.84,0.5,0.61,0.63,0.76,0.98,1	90.3%
ORL 106, NYK 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.67,0.79,0.94,0.96,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.85,0.91,1	89.7%
BOS 104, CHI 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.66,0.74,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.45,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.73,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.9,0.95,1	89.6%