NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	7.0 [414]		MVP	Gerald Green (PHX): +38.6%
Phoenix Suns	97		Comeback	2.3 [639]		LVP	Markieff Morris (PHX): -11.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.08	0.16	-0.00	7	65%	0.24	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
LeBron James	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	22	64%	0.29	4	-0.12	14	79%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.02	11	81%	0.20	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	6	58%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	5	30%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Toney Douglas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	9	28%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.11,-0.16,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	0.00	9	45%	0.06	4	-0.14	4	75%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.39	0.39	0.18	0.20	-0.00	14	84%	0.44	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Channing Frye	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	13	58%	0.12	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	3	71%	0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Alex Len	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Miles Plumlee	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	12	52%	0.08	3	-0.14	5	100%	0.02
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.02	-0.08	0.03	11	58%	0.01	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	14	40%	-0.03	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.5	31.4	15.5	20.4	2.6	39.2	138.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +16.3%

MIA +8.9%

MIA +11.6%

MIA +13.1%

MIA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHX	NBA	MIA	PHX	NBA
this game	15.8	15.5	15.1	112.0	105.4	105.2
season	15.6	14.7		109.7	107.7
opponent	14.9	15.8		105.0	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	14.5	16.9	15.9	15.8
PHX	16.5	13.8	15.9	16.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	54	54	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-6	18	16.2	15.3	0.89	15.1	15.9	-0.82
Chris Andersen	33	34	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.02	18	-12	30	15.3	16.1	-0.83	15.8	15.3	0.56
Norris Cole	56	55	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.40	2	4	-2	17.0	14.1	2.88	15.3	15.7	-0.35
LeBron James	78	79	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	-2	10	15.4	18.1	-2.64	15.7	13.8	1.89
Mario Chalmers	64	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	3	0	14.9	17.9	-3.01	15.7	14.9	0.88
Rashard Lewis	20	21	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	1	4	16.1	15.7	0.40	15.3	15.5	-0.24
Chris Bosh	75	74	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.34	-8	14	-22	16.2	14.2	1.96	15.2	16.4	-1.15
Toney Douglas	29	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	7	-8	15.7	15.9	-0.27	16.1	15.2	0.93
Shane Battier	51	50	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.02	-9	15	-24	15.8	15.9	-0.16	15.0	16.0	-0.98

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Miles Plumlee	27	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-7	8	15.2	15.6	-0.35	15.2	16.1	-0.95
Alex Len	14	12	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-2	-2	14.0	15.7	-1.73	15.7	15.9	-0.20
Marcus Morris	16	15	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.08	-8	2	-10	13.3	15.9	-2.61	16.0	15.8	0.19
PJ Tucker	72	72	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.28	4	-10	14	16.1	13.2	2.90	15.5	17.1	-1.61
Goran Dragic	73	74	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.34	5	-11	16	15.8	14.2	1.58	15.8	15.9	-0.06
Channing Frye	72	73	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.32	1	-7	8	15.3	15.9	-0.62	15.8	15.8	0.06
Ish Smith	32	32	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	0	-6	14.8	15.8	-1.05	15.1	16.2	-1.09
Gerald Green	64	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-3	0	15.7	14.9	0.88	16.3	14.7	1.61
Markieff Morris	63	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-1	-4	15.3	15.9	-0.58	16.3	14.8	1.47
Leandro Barbosa	27	27	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.02	-15	9	-24	16.1	15.2	0.96	16.0	15.8	0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.39,0.29,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 89, POR 79	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.61,0.57,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.34,0.14,0.07,0.01,0,0	92.2%
SAS 104, CHA 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.04,0	92.2%
ATL 100, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.38,0.27,0.14,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.01,0,0	92.1%