NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	85		Excitement	3.1 [1167]		MVP	Taj Gibson (CHI): +6.6%
Chicago Bulls	100		Comeback	1.1 [856]		LVP	Gustavo Ayon (ATL): -9.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Louis Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	11	59%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	9	67%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	7	57%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	150%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	7	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Paul Millsap	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0.04	15	50%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	6	25%	-0.03	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	-0.04	19	60%	0.09	4	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	15	53%	0.05	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.00	-0.06	14	54%	0.06	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	11	57%	0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	9	55%	0.02	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	12	42%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	2.5	27.5	16.4	20.5	1.7	26.0	116.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +28.5%

ATL -0.0%

CHI +17.6%

ATL -0.7%

CHI +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHI	NBA	ATL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.3	17.8	15.1	95.5	111.1	105.2
season	14.8	16.3		103.8	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.3		99.6	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.0	14.0	12.9	13.7	14.3
CHI	16.5	16.0	17.9	21.2	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shelvin Mack	18	19	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-18	21	12.6	14.8	-2.15	18.1	17.8	0.28
Cartier Martin	11	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-12	9	14.4	14.3	0.04	12.7	18.6	-5.87
Elton Brand	46	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-17	19	12.9	15.8	-2.92	18.8	16.7	2.16
Jeff Teague	59	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-10	5	14.9	13.3	1.60	18.3	16.9	1.44
Gustavo Ayon	37	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.09	-11	-4	-7	15.9	13.2	2.77	16.5	18.7	-2.18
Mike Scott	33	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-8	1	13.0	15.1	-2.06	18.4	17.5	0.93
Louis Williams	53	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-8	1	13.5	15.5	-2.02	19.1	15.9	3.29
Kyle Korver	65	65	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	-3	-9	14.6	13.5	1.07	17.9	17.6	0.27
Paul Millsap	62	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	-1	-13	15.1	12.6	2.54	17.5	18.6	-1.06
DeMarre Carroll	61	62	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.11	-21	6	-27	14.7	13.5	1.20	17.0	19.6	-2.52

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joakim Noah	77	75	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.01	16	-1	17	17.6	19.1	-1.45	14.8	11.7	3.10
Kirk Hinrich	55	55	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.19	21	-6	27	17.3	18.7	-1.39	15.1	13.1	1.91
Mike Dunleavy	67	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.10	17	-2	19	17.6	18.5	-0.87	14.7	13.0	1.67
Taj Gibson	86	85	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	7	1	18.2	11.0	7.15	14.2	17.5	-3.32
Jimmy Butler	70	67	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.13	7	8	-1	18.1	17.0	1.01	14.3	14.3	0.01
D.J. Augustin	58	59	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	13	-11	18.3	16.9	1.39	13.6	15.8	-2.22
Tony Snell	27	26	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	11	-7	17.2	18.1	-0.87	13.0	14.9	-1.82
Nazr Mohammed	10	10	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.05	0	15	-15	18.4	17.8	0.64	13.0	14.5	-1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 93, OKC 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	96.3%
WAS 92, ORL 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1	96.3%
MIL 100, TOR 122	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%