NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	96		Excitement	6.7 [481]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +11.5%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.1 [1144]		LVP	Josh Smith (DET): -23.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.12	-0.02	0.07	15	62%	0.13	3	-0.10	12	83%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	13	52%	0.05	2	-0.05	7	71%	0.00
Will Bynum	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.04	6	75%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.00	-0.06	0.03	17	54%	0.06	4	-0.16	3	67%	-0.00
Josh Smith	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24	-0.22	-0.08	-0.06	20	29%	-0.05	6	-0.19	1	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.00	19	71%	0.18	6	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	19	52%	0.10	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.05	-0.01	8	56%	0.14	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	8	74%	0.12	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	11	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	8	19%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	1.8	36.0	15.8	26.0	2.8	32.3	140.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +23.7%

DET -3.5%

DET -4.2%

MIA +19.4%

MIA +14.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	13.8	16.0	15.1	100.0	105.2	105.2
season	15.0	15.6		104.7	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.0		105.1	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.7	12.8	13.4	13.5	13.8
MIA	15.6	13.9	15.4	19.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	16	18	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	-3	0	16.6	13.2	3.37	11.7	17.0	-5.28
Jonas Jerebko	22	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.13	3	-9	12	13.5	13.9	-0.35	16.0	16.0	-0.03
Rodney Stuckey	71	71	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.41	7	-13	20	13.3	15.4	-2.15	17.4	12.3	5.13
Will Bynum	31	30	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-9	3	-12	14.5	13.5	0.94	14.8	16.6	-1.72
Andre Drummond	48	49	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	0	-6	13.7	13.9	-0.21	16.2	15.8	0.45
Greg Monroe	69	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	2	-10	15.0	10.7	4.27	15.1	18.2	-3.13
Josh Smith	75	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	0	-6	13.8	13.9	-0.12	15.9	16.5	-0.64
Kyle Singler	66	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-4	2	12.8	16.1	-3.28	17.4	13.0	4.39
Brandon Jennings	82	83	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.25	-6	0	-6	13.5	15.8	-2.31	15.8	17.1	-1.23

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	76	75	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.28	11	-5	16	15.4	18.4	-3.07	14.3	12.0	2.26
Mario Chalmers	46	47	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.10	19	-13	32	15.1	16.9	-1.82	14.3	13.3	0.95
Chris Bosh	74	72	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.30	5	1	4	15.4	17.9	-2.42	13.3	15.2	-1.86
LeBron James	77	76	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.20	6	0	6	16.0	16.0	-0.04	13.7	14.3	-0.68
Chris Andersen	43	41	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.32	-2	8	-10	17.7	14.7	2.97	14.0	13.7	0.24
Greg Oden	22	23	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	-1	8	15.7	16.1	-0.44	12.2	14.3	-2.15
Shane Battier	44	42	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	4	-2	14.9	17.0	-2.12	15.0	12.9	2.20
Norris Cole	49	48	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.22	-4	10	-14	16.5	15.5	0.99	13.6	14.0	-0.42
Ray Allen	49	49	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.34	-11	17	-28	18.0	14.0	3.92	12.8	14.9	-2.12
Michael Beasley	5	7	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	9	-12	17.2	16.0	1.24	17.4	13.5	3.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 89, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.81,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	94.1%
HOU 79, MIN 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.68,0.58,0.63,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.75,0.81,0.73,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.87,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.86,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.9%
MIL 106, CHI 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.8%