NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	117		Excitement	7.2 [388]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +20.3%
Dallas Mavericks	115		Comeback	1.4 [494]		LVP	Jose Calderon (DAL): -27.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chandler Parsons	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	17	60%	0.21	2	-0.07	9	67%	-0.03
Donatas Motiejunas	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.07	-0.02	5	75%	0.17	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Terrence Jones	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	10	67%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Jeremy Lin	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	14	64%	0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.04	10	68%	0.11	4	-0.11	11	82%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.00	7	61%	0.10	1	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Patrick Beverley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	61%	0.09	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2	0.20	0.24	0.03	0.06	21	72%	0.26	2	-0.06	11	100%	0.05
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.02	0.03	8	64%	0.12	1	-0.05	6	67%	-0.03
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.12	-0.00	0.07	9	76%	0.14	3	-0.10	11	91%	0.02
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	10	30%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.06	0.00	10	30%	-0.06	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.28	-0.28	-0.07	-0.21	-0.01	12	30%	-0.28	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.8	37.7	5.0	33.3	2.4	41.5	147.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +71.2%

DAL -2.3%

HOU +0.7%

DAL -15.2%

DAL -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DAL	NBA	HOU	DAL	NBA
this game	14.3	14.3	15.1	115.8	115.0	105.2
season	14.3	15.3		109.5	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.2		107.0	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.6	16.1	13.6	15.2	14.3
DAL	14.5	14.5	14.6	13.6	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donatas Motiejunas	51	52	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.49	5	-3	8	14.6	14.0	0.59	14.7	13.9	0.74
Chandler Parsons	86	84	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	1	0	13.3	20.4	-7.12	13.7	17.4	-3.64
Jeremy Lin	82	81	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.41	1	1	0	13.4	18.4	-4.97	13.7	16.8	-3.11
Dwight Howard	79	78	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.40	-3	5	-8	13.4	17.9	-4.51	13.7	16.5	-2.74
Aaron Brooks	41	43	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	-10	22	17.3	12.3	4.98	15.5	13.4	2.09
Omri Casspi	22	22	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	-3	8	17.9	13.4	4.51	16.5	13.7	2.74
Patrick Beverley	78	77	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.39	-9	11	-20	13.9	15.7	-1.70	14.3	14.3	0.08
Ronnie Brewer	1	0	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	2	-2	0.0	14.5	-14.48	0.0	14.3	-14.32
Terrence Jones	65	63	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	4	-6	15.5	12.2	3.29	14.7	13.6	1.11

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samuel Dalembert	23	26	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-3	4	13.5	14.6	-1.04	15.5	13.9	1.62
Brandan Wright	23	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	1	-4	15.8	13.9	1.90	18.2	13.3	4.93
Shawn Marion	60	60	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	0	-2	14.6	13.8	0.83	14.1	14.7	-0.58
Monta Ellis	65	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-5	8	14.8	13.5	1.28	13.1	17.0	-3.85
Dirk Nowitzki	74	76	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.39	6	-8	14	13.8	15.7	-1.91	14.7	13.4	1.30
Jae Crowder	21	21	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.08	-12	10	-22	15.2	14.1	1.16	14.7	14.2	0.48
Jose Calderon	80	80	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.49	5	-7	12	14.1	15.3	-1.22	13.4	17.8	-4.32
DeJuan Blair	53	53	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.38	0	-2	2	13.9	14.7	-0.80	12.5	16.4	-3.92
Vince Carter	59	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	2	-6	14.1	14.6	-0.49	15.0	13.4	1.64
Devin Harris	49	48	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.33	-6	4	-10	14.4	14.2	0.17	16.1	12.7	3.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.24,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.39,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 105, SEA 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	94.4%
LAL 118, DEN 108	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.33,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.09,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0	93.7%
MEM 113, LAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.22,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.1,0.21,0.24,0.09,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0	93.7%