NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	106		Excitement	6.0 [626]		MVP	Jose Calderon (DAL): +17.7%
Dallas Mavericks	116		Comeback	1.2 [987]		LVP	Monta Ellis (DAL): -15.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Monroe	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.06	0.03	13	67%	0.15	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	7	60%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Josh Harrellson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Mitchell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	11	39%	0.01	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Josh Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	24	45%	0.01	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.00	0.07	18	59%	0.10	6	-0.16	8	50%	-0.04
Kyle Singler	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	11	41%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.06	0.00	8	94%	0.21	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.20	0.03	0.07	16	76%	0.19	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.11	-0.01	8	59%	0.18	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.00	7	78%	0.18	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	9	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	9	44%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	0.00	8	58%	0.06	8	-0.21	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.8	30.0	16.8	29.4	0.7	32.5	136.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +54.9%

DAL +16.9%

DET -10.9%

DET -10.7%

DET -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	14.1	15.3	15.1	108.2	118.4	105.2
season	15.0	15.3		104.7	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.0		107.0	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.0	15.1	13.1	13.2	14.1
DAL	14.4	14.3	15.2	17.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Mitchell	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	5.0	14.2	-9.18	1.0	15.5	-14.45
Greg Monroe	58	58	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-9	8	14.6	13.3	1.28	15.4	15.2	0.22
Brandon Jennings	77	77	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-12	14	13.6	15.8	-2.14	15.6	14.3	1.24
Josh Harrellson	28	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-11	12	12.8	14.6	-1.76	15.0	15.4	-0.48
Andre Drummond	54	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	2	-14	14.6	13.4	1.18	14.6	16.1	-1.49
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	63	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.11	-9	-1	-8	14.3	13.7	0.53	14.2	17.3	-3.17
Josh Smith	84	85	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.17	-9	-1	-8	14.0	14.6	-0.57	15.6	13.7	1.86
Rodney Stuckey	61	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.20	-11	1	-12	14.3	13.7	0.61	16.0	14.1	1.97
Kyle Singler	64	64	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.20	-13	3	-16	14.1	14.0	0.08	15.9	14.1	1.77

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	31	30	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	0	10	15.2	15.4	-0.21	16.0	13.2	2.72
Devin Harris	47	46	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.20	12	-2	14	16.0	14.6	1.42	14.5	13.7	0.75
Vince Carter	45	46	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-2	14	15.6	15.0	0.63	14.6	13.7	0.91
Dirk Nowitzki	67	67	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.07	16	-6	22	15.0	16.1	-1.11	14.4	13.5	0.87
Brandan Wright	32	33	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	1	8	15.3	15.3	0.06	15.0	13.6	1.34
DeJuan Blair	26	27	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	6	-2	17.2	14.6	2.51	13.1	14.5	-1.39
Jose Calderon	70	72	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	8	-6	15.5	14.9	0.53	13.4	16.1	-2.72
Monta Ellis	63	63	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	14	-18	14.5	16.8	-2.28	13.9	14.4	-0.54
Shawn Marion	65	64	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.09	-6	16	-22	15.5	14.9	0.64	13.2	15.8	-2.67
Samuel Dalembert	44	42	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.02	-5	15	-20	14.3	16.1	-1.83	14.2	14.0	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.78,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.73,0.66,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.84,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.88,0.93,0.99,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 94, IND 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	93.6%
MIA 89, ATL 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.75,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%
TOR 83, MIA 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.59,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.63,0.62,0.74,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.66,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.96,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%