NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	112		Excitement	2.8 [1211]		MVP	DeMarre Carroll (ATL): +9.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	87		Comeback	1.4 [786]		LVP	Larry Sanders (MIL): -7.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarre Carroll	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.00	0.01	5	100%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Louis Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.14	-0.00	0.06	9	82%	0.07	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Mike Scott	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.00	-0.03	10	58%	0.06	2	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.00	0.05	7	71%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Elton Brand	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	5	67%	0.04	3	-0.01	2	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.10	6	29%	0.02	2	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	0.00	0.07	14	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Jared Cunningham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Nunnally	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	7	56%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.17	-0.00	0.13	15	90%	0.11	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	56%	0.01	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Nate Wolters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	57%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Miroslav Raduljica	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	9	55%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	15	35%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	-0.05	6	36%	-0.01	4	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	-0.01	-0.05	5	8%	-0.07	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	24.3	17.4	26.6	2.3	27.6	125.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +39.3%

ATL +2.1%

MIL -14.3%

ATL +21.7%

ATL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	14.6	15.5	15.1	116.7	91.6	105.2
season	14.8	15.7		103.8	101.4
opponent	15.1	15.3		109.7	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.8	14.6	13.7	15.5	14.6
MIL	14.0	16.7	15.8	15.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	61	60	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.41	28	-3	31	13.8	16.2	-2.42	14.4	17.4	-2.92
Kyle Korver	53	55	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.37	26	-1	27	14.0	15.5	-1.50	14.7	16.6	-1.94
Louis Williams	49	48	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.24	21	4	17	14.8	14.5	0.29	15.5	15.6	-0.14
DeMarre Carroll	48	47	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.29	20	5	15	14.7	14.5	0.19	16.0	15.1	0.90
Mike Scott	52	51	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.10	6	19	-13	15.1	14.1	0.96	16.5	14.4	2.12
Gustavo Ayon	59	57	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	14	-3	14.2	15.4	-1.25	14.9	16.5	-1.62
Elton Brand	37	38	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.17	14	11	3	15.4	14.2	1.25	16.5	14.9	1.62
Shelvin Mack	48	46	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.37	20	5	15	14.6	14.6	0.02	15.9	15.2	0.75
Dennis Schroder	34	34	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.20	-6	31	-37	15.9	14.0	1.93	15.6	15.5	0.10
James Nunnally	23	23	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	32	-39	15.5	14.4	1.11	15.8	15.4	0.40
Jared Cunningham	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	33	-41	14.2	14.7	-0.54	16.4	15.3	1.10

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nate Wolters	31	31	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.21	7	-32	39	15.9	15.3	0.61	15.7	14.1	1.59
Miroslav Raduljica	22	22	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-29	33	15.1	15.6	-0.51	14.7	14.6	0.12
Caron Butler	29	29	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	-20	15	17.1	14.8	2.22	15.4	14.3	1.12
Luke Ridnour	29	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.21	-10	-15	5	15.9	15.4	0.53	15.3	14.3	0.97
Giannis Antetokounmpo	49	50	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.19	3	-28	31	15.7	15.4	0.30	15.5	13.7	1.76
O.J. Mayo	40	41	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.19	-16	-9	-7	15.9	15.3	0.65	15.1	14.3	0.81
Larry Sanders	42	43	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.21	-17	-8	-9	14.8	16.1	-1.33	14.4	14.8	-0.48
John Henson	56	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.25	-19	-6	-13	15.3	15.9	-0.59	14.6	14.7	-0.18
Ersan Ilyasova	42	43	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.26	-23	-2	-21	15.0	15.9	-0.86	13.8	15.3	-1.53
Brandon Knight	74	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.29	-25	0	-25	15.1	16.9	-1.77	13.9	17.2	-3.30
Khris Middleton	61	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.20	-24	-1	-23	15.7	15.2	0.54	14.1	15.6	-1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.28,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 93, DEN 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
SAS 132, CHA 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.18,0.23,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
SAS 110, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.14,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%