NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	110		Excitement	2.7 [1226]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +12.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Comeback	1.2 [1275]		LVP	Craig Smith (MIN): -12.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.19	0.00	0.07	11	87%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	10	78%	0.09	3	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.01	8	68%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	-0.00	0.06	7	79%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	64%	0.05	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	6	75%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Fabricio Oberto	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tony Parker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	5	25%	-0.00	2	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	0.00	0.05	6	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	11	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.16	-0.00	0.06	14	79%	0.12	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	15	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Bracey Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	13	54%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	0.10	10	70%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	0.06	8	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Justin Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.18	-0.01	-0.06	10	19%	-0.08	3	-0.05	6	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.6	28.2	15.8	27.0	2.4	207.7	307.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +37.8%

SAS +6.3%

SAS +0.9%

SAS +3.5%

SAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.6	15.4	118.3	97.8	104.5
season	16.2	15.4		107.5	101.9
opponent	15.6	15.4		105.8	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.1	15.0	17.4	16.9	16.3
MIN	16.6	14.4	15.4	12.4	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	42	43	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.15	18	1	17	15.5	17.0	-1.54	14.9	14.4	0.44
Tim Duncan	40	38	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.23	19	0	19	16.3	16.4	-0.08	16.3	13.5	2.82
Robert Horry	43	43	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.05	13	6	7	17.3	15.5	1.78	15.4	14.0	1.40
Brent Barry	57	56	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.08	13	6	7	14.8	18.7	-3.87	13.7	16.1	-2.34
Jacque Vaughn	48	50	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.20	16	3	13	16.6	16.0	0.63	15.4	13.7	1.68
Bruce Bowen	33	34	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.16	13	6	7	18.5	15.1	3.45	16.5	13.6	2.92
Michael Finley	49	50	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	18	-17	17.8	14.6	3.20	14.2	15.1	-0.88
Matt Bonner	50	50	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	13	-7	15.5	17.3	-1.78	14.0	15.4	-1.40
Fabricio Oberto	28	31	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.01	6	13	-7	15.9	16.5	-0.61	14.3	14.8	-0.48
Beno Udrih	47	43	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.23	-4	23	-27	15.2	17.4	-2.20	13.4	15.7	-2.24
Melvin Ely	25	24	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.18	-6	25	-31	16.9	16.1	0.76	12.4	15.4	-3.00
Tony Parker	3	3	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	19	-19	19.7	16.2	3.46	18.7	14.5	4.16

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bracey Wright	9	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-20	21	12.9	14.8	-1.94	15.2	16.4	-1.22
Mark Madsen	34	36	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.20	6	-25	31	13.5	15.3	-1.76	17.6	15.5	2.10
Rashad McCants	44	44	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-18	17	13.5	15.7	-2.26	16.0	16.7	-0.70
Trenton Hassell	42	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.23	-16	-3	-13	15.8	13.7	2.17	17.5	15.4	2.06
Justin Reed	27	25	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	-8	-3	15.9	14.1	1.80	13.2	17.5	-4.27
Randy Foye	58	58	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-12	5	13.8	16.1	-2.31	15.1	18.4	-3.29
Craig Smith	64	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.07	-12	-7	-5	14.3	15.4	-1.07	16.2	16.5	-0.28
Mike James	49	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.13	-17	-2	-15	15.7	13.5	2.22	17.2	15.4	1.83
Mark Blount	58	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.14	-19	0	-19	15.4	13.4	1.95	16.8	15.6	1.25
Ricky Davis	80	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.08	-19	0	-19	14.6	14.7	-0.05	16.5	15.0	1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.14,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 99, BOS 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
UTA 97, WAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.07,0,0,0	96.9%
GSW 101, MEM 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%