NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	101		Excitement	8.6 [169]		MVP	Caron Butler (MIL): +34.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	8.1 [86]		LVP	Brandon Knight (MIL): -31.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Monroe	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.03	0.02	11	64%	0.12	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Andre Drummond	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	7	61%	0.11	1	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	16	57%	0.12	3	-0.10	8	87%	0.04
Brandon Jennings	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.18,0.12,0.04,0.04,-0.02	0.09	-0.10	0.00	23	58%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.01	8	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Will Bynum	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.02	7	0%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.1,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22	-0.15	-0.09	-0.01	10	29%	-0.11	3	-0.11	8	50%	-0.10

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.18	0.15	-0.03	21	65%	0.35	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Miroslav Raduljica	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	5	80%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	9	55%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.17
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	71%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.09	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	13	46%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28,-0.38,-0.27,-0.31	-0.31	-0.18	-0.14	-0.00	17	38%	-0.01	6	-0.30	8	50%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	25.4	16.4	25.6	2.5	40.3	137.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +79.3%

DET -26.6%

MIL +12.0%

DET -14.0%

DET -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	12.5	15.7	15.1	100.0	101.0	105.2
season	15.0	15.7		104.7	101.4
opponent	15.1	15.0		109.7	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	12.1	13.3	12.0	12.8	12.5
MIL	13.6	16.0	16.1	17.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Monroe	62	63	0.32	-0.82	1.13	-0.06	13	-16	29	12.3	12.8	-0.51	15.2	16.4	-1.23
Josh Smith	71	72	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.42	8	-11	19	12.4	12.8	-0.38	15.8	15.3	0.54
Will Bynum	23	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	4	-11	13.2	12.3	0.83	15.3	15.8	-0.49
Brandon Jennings	78	79	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.41	4	-7	11	12.3	13.2	-0.83	15.8	15.3	0.49
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	91	93	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.48	5	-8	13	12.6	12.1	0.48	16.1	11.3	4.84
Andre Drummond	70	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	12.7	12.2	0.49	15.8	15.4	0.34
Kyle Singler	42	43	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.11	-20	17	-37	12.7	12.4	0.35	14.7	16.3	-1.63
Rodney Stuckey	68	70	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.37	-16	13	-29	12.5	12.6	-0.15	15.8	15.4	0.36

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khris Middleton	66	64	0.93	-0.43	1.35	0.34	20	-17	37	15.3	16.2	-0.89	12.3	12.9	-0.52
Caron Butler	69	67	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.36	16	-13	29	16.0	15.0	1.04	12.7	12.3	0.36
Miroslav Raduljica	42	41	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.31	17	-14	31	16.1	15.4	0.68	12.2	12.8	-0.61
Brandon Knight	87	86	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.46	-1	4	-5	16.1	13.4	2.64	12.4	13.4	-1.02
Luke Ridnour	40	40	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.04	12	-9	21	15.7	15.6	0.09	12.3	12.7	-0.43
John Henson	44	43	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.44	-4	7	-11	15.4	15.9	-0.53	13.1	12.1	0.97
Ersan Ilyasova	62	60	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.01	-12	15	-27	14.6	17.2	-2.57	12.3	12.9	-0.62
Ekpe Udoh	51	51	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	0.03	-15	18	-33	15.9	15.4	0.50	12.9	12.2	0.74
Giannis Antetokounmpo	54	53	-0.47	0.97	-1.45	0.05	-18	21	-39	15.8	15.5	0.27	12.8	12.2	0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.3,0.15,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.53,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.62,0.64,0.76,0.87,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 86, MIL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.72,0.91,1,1	91.5%
MIA 96, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.29,0.45,0.61,0.46,0.76,0.91,1	91.4%
MIN 100, ATL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.61,0.66,0.77,0.74,1	91.4%