NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	86		Excitement	7.8 [236]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +18.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	92		Comeback	7.6 [375]		LVP	Linas Kleiza (TOR): -23.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Forbes	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.03	-0.02	9	75%	0.15	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gray	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Solomon Alabi	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	21	50%	0.10	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.03
Amir Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Uzoh	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alan Anderson	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19	-0.12	-0.11	-0.04	13	35%	0.02	4	-0.21	5	100%	0.04
Ed Davis	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.07	-0.15	0.00	4	25%	-0.12	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	0.02	13	54%	0.04	5	-0.27	2	50%	-0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.10	0.02	10	68%	0.21	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.02
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	7	61%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	8	48%	0.04	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.11,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.01	23	48%	0.10	2	-0.07	6	67%	0.03
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.17,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	14	46%	0.02	4	-0.18	9	89%	0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.5	28.3	15.4	26.2	2.0	40.1	136.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR -17.4%

MIL +30.6%

TOR -13.0%

MIL +50.0%

TOR -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	17.4	13.1	15.6	90.5	97.9	102.8
season	16.5	14.6		98.9	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.2		103.4	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.2	21.3	16.8	15.1	17.4
MIL	15.5	12.4	13.2	11.5	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	29	30	0.28	-0.78	1.05	-0.02	10	-16	26	17.2	17.4	-0.22	15.1	12.1	2.99
Solomon Alabi	6	6	0.07	-0.56	0.63	-0.02	3	-9	12	21.0	17.1	3.89	11.7	13.2	-1.53
DeMar DeRozan	27	28	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-8	10	20.2	16.2	3.95	14.6	12.5	2.15
Aaron Gray	5	5	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.01	1	-7	8	25.0	16.9	8.07	15.8	12.9	2.86
Gary Forbes	48	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.02	-7	1	-8	18.3	16.4	1.97	12.9	13.3	-0.41
Ben Uzoh	80	78	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-6	6	16.3	22.8	-6.46	13.3	11.9	1.40
James Johnson	81	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-7	8	17.4	17.4	0.00	13.2	12.6	0.56
Alan Anderson	85	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.32	-4	-2	-2	16.8	22.2	-5.41	13.2	12.6	0.52
Linas Kleiza	59	57	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.32	-16	10	-26	17.5	17.2	0.31	12.0	14.8	-2.78
Ed Davis	55	53	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.28	-20	14	-34	16.3	18.7	-2.40	11.8	14.7	-2.86

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ekpe Udoh	59	61	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.25	23	-17	40	11.9	15.0	-3.08	17.3	17.5	-0.22
Mike Dunleavy	53	57	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.23	23	-17	40	11.6	15.0	-3.38	17.0	17.8	-0.81
Brandon Jennings	76	78	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.32	8	-2	10	13.3	12.3	0.94	16.4	21.5	-5.08
Ersan Ilyasova	72	74	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	3	0	13.3	12.4	0.90	16.2	21.3	-5.04
Monta Ellis	74	74	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.30	0	6	-6	13.6	11.1	2.54	17.5	16.7	0.83
Beno Udrih	38	38	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.04	4	2	2	11.7	14.1	-2.37	18.9	16.4	2.52
Tobias Harris	22	21	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	3	0	12.4	13.3	-0.90	21.3	16.2	5.04
Jon Leuer	10	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	6	-6	12.6	13.2	-0.55	21.3	16.9	4.41
Shaun Livingston	41	38	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	0.10	-17	23	-40	15.0	11.6	3.38	17.8	17.0	0.81
Drew Gooden	25	24	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	0.10	-17	23	-40	16.0	12.0	3.96	15.9	17.8	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.72,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 93, ORL 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.72,0.97,1,1	92.6%
MEM 101, PHX 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.34,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.36,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.84,0.98,1,1	91.5%
DET 101, MIL 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.3,0.15,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.53,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.62,0.64,0.76,0.87,1	91.5%