NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	104		Excitement	6.8 [474]		MVP	Reggie Jackson (OKC): +16.3%
Houston Rockets	92		Comeback	7.1 [134]		LVP	Dwight Howard (HOU): -10.1%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.09	0.02	19	61%	0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.03	21	58%	0.24	7	-0.16	20	90%	0.07
Serge Ibaka	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06	0.11	-0.02	0.03	13	81%	0.18	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	30%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	62%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Perry Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	6	38%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	9	28%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donatas Motiejunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.11	0.01	0.00	9	83%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	8	33%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Jones	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.05	-0.02	12	53%	0.00	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
James Harden	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.06	-0.04	16	46%	0.02	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.10	0.00	8	61%	0.03	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	13	44%	0.03	4	-0.12	6	50%	-0.07
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.00	0.01	13	39%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	3.5	35.1	18.6	26.2	3.6	37.2	150.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +30.8%

OKC +14.2%

OKC +1.4%

OKC +2.5%

OKC +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	HOU	NBA	OKC	HOU	NBA
this game	14.7	14.5	15.1	107.2	92.0	105.2
season	14.4	14.3		107.8	109.5
opponent	15.2	15.4		105.4	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.7	13.8	13.9	15.7	14.7
HOU	13.1	12.9	15.5	17.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	84	88	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.09	20	-8	28	15.1	12.5	2.52	14.7	12.8	1.92
Nick Collison	38	39	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.34	10	2	8	14.3	15.0	-0.75	15.2	14.1	1.12
Serge Ibaka	74	77	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-5	22	15.3	12.9	2.37	14.3	15.2	-0.91
Jeremy Lamb	44	45	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.35	2	10	-8	14.6	14.8	-0.28	14.9	14.2	0.67
Kendrick Perkins	55	55	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.21	15	-3	18	13.7	16.0	-2.30	14.8	14.2	0.58
Derek Fisher	35	38	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.01	7	5	2	14.0	15.1	-1.08	15.6	13.8	1.79
Reggie Jackson	72	73	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.03	5	7	-2	14.8	14.5	0.33	13.8	16.3	-2.48
Steven Adams	20	21	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	18	-24	15.6	14.5	1.11	14.8	14.5	0.31
Thabo Sefolosha	50	52	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.10	-2	14	-16	15.5	13.9	1.57	13.7	15.4	-1.60
Perry Jones	13	12	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.05	-8	20	-28	12.5	15.1	-2.52	12.8	14.7	-1.92

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omri Casspi	15	16	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.10	11	-23	34	12.1	14.9	-2.81	12.9	15.1	-2.21
Jeremy Lin	52	50	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.16	-7	-5	-2	14.4	14.6	-0.24	14.3	15.2	-0.95
James Harden	82	80	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-9	6	14.3	15.4	-1.06	15.1	12.9	2.23
Dwight Howard	61	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.13	-11	-1	-10	15.0	13.7	1.36	15.0	14.3	0.62
Francisco Garcia	19	17	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-3	-6	14.7	14.5	0.27	12.9	15.1	-2.23
Donatas Motiejunas	50	47	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-9	6	14.5	14.5	-0.04	15.2	14.3	0.95
Aaron Brooks	48	47	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.31	-5	-7	2	14.6	14.4	0.24	15.2	14.3	0.95
Terrence Jones	86	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	2	-16	14.3	16.1	-1.89	14.3	17.4	-3.08
Chandler Parsons	87	85	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.11	-19	7	-26	15.0	11.5	3.43	15.0	12.5	2.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.4,0.22,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 78, CHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.09,0	91.6%
BOS 88, CHI 77	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.17,0.1,0.06,0,0,0	91.6%
CHI 104, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.54,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.23,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.16,0	91.4%