NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	104		Excitement	7.1 [426]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): +20.4%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	6.6 [109]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -19.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2	0.09	0.13	0.01	14	63%	0.25	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Ben Gordon	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	16	59%	0.25	6	-0.18	14	79%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	4	60%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	61%	0.05	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Chris Duhon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	9	56%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	17	57%	0.10	5	-0.19	8	75%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	2	83%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	8	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	11	52%	0.05	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.09	0.02	17	50%	-0.08	2	-0.04	12	25%	-0.18
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.11,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.12	-0.00	27	44%	-0.03	4	-0.17	10	40%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.0	33.1	18.7	32.0	3.5	44.6	162.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +33.5%

CHI +34.0%

CHI +14.6%

MIA -32.2%

CHI +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	15.8	15.4	108.3	101.1	104.5
season	14.5	16.0		103.1	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.9		104.3	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.0	15.6	13.8	14.2	14.4
MIA	16.6	13.8	17.0	15.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Duhon	64	62	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.24	20	-12	32	13.7	15.8	-2.14	15.5	16.2	-0.66
Kirk Hinrich	81	81	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.26	15	-7	22	14.4	14.2	0.22	16.5	11.4	5.19
Ben Gordon	76	75	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	5	-2	14.5	13.9	0.55	15.5	16.9	-1.48
Ben Wallace	79	80	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	3	2	14.4	14.2	0.25	16.2	13.5	2.67
Andres Nocioni	55	53	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	2	4	15.0	13.5	1.52	15.3	16.3	-0.99
Luol Deng	72	73	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.05	7	1	6	14.1	15.4	-1.32	16.1	14.8	1.25
P.J. Brown	35	34	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	5	-2	13.9	14.7	-0.79	16.5	15.4	1.17
Tyrus Thomas	9	9	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.07	-8	16	-24	15.1	14.3	0.80	8.9	16.5	-7.61
Thabo Sefolosha	9	8	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	0.07	-11	19	-30	17.7	14.0	3.62	13.4	16.0	-2.63

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	27	27	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-10	12	14.6	16.3	-1.71	14.2	14.4	-0.23
Antoine Walker	46	46	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.07	2	-10	12	14.6	16.9	-2.23	14.5	14.3	0.14
James Posey	72	72	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.28	5	-13	18	15.3	17.3	-2.01	14.6	13.7	0.96
Eddie Jones	52	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.22	1	-9	10	14.7	17.0	-2.32	14.5	14.3	0.15
Jason Williams	53	53	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-3	-2	16.9	14.4	2.51	14.8	13.9	0.82
Jason Kapono	31	31	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.05	-11	3	-14	16.1	15.6	0.47	13.6	14.8	-1.19
Udonis Haslem	46	48	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	4	-16	17.0	14.7	2.28	14.5	14.3	0.19
Shaquille O'Neal	62	63	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.24	-10	2	-12	16.8	13.9	2.91	14.6	14.1	0.49
Dwyane Wade	86	87	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.25	-12	4	-16	15.7	16.9	-1.23	14.0	17.7	-3.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.54,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.23,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 106, MIA 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.72,0.69,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.15,0.22,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.27,0	93.5%
TOR 89, CHA 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.66,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.17,0.1,0.03,0,0,0	91.9%
MIL 78, CHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.09,0	91.8%