NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	2.1 [1286]		MVP	Vince Carter (DAL): +13.6%
Chicago Bulls	83		Comeback	1.3 [809]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): -10.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.00	-0.02	9	86%	0.14	2	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	19	55%	0.05	4	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	57%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jae Crowder	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.00	0.06	2	129%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	11	64%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Larkin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	0.00	0.06	3	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bernard James	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gal Mekel	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.04	15	56%	0.01	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	11	41%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.13	-0.00	0.11	11	74%	0.06	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erik Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	8	69%	0.03	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	-0.08	8	11%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	15	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.00	0.05	7	72%	0.00	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	-0.05	10	42%	0.00	7	-0.10	6	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.4	28.5	15.4	23.4	1.8	26.3	122.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +24.1%

DAL +7.3%

CHI -2.4%

DAL +17.2%

DAL +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CHI	NBA	DAL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.4	15.6	15.1	116.7	92.2	105.2
season	15.3	16.3		109.0	101.1
opponent	15.3	15.0		99.6	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.4	14.8	17.6	17.7	16.4
CHI	15.9	16.5	15.9	14.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	43	44	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.01	14	8	6	14.7	18.0	-3.31	15.3	15.9	-0.55
Jae Crowder	32	32	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.19	5	17	-12	15.1	17.1	-1.99	14.3	16.3	-2.03
Monta Ellis	68	67	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.23	19	3	16	16.7	15.3	1.46	16.2	13.8	2.41
Dirk Nowitzki	59	58	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.00	9	13	-4	17.3	14.6	2.69	14.6	17.5	-2.91
Shane Larkin	25	26	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	17	-12	15.8	16.6	-0.80	13.3	16.6	-3.31
Shawn Marion	60	60	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.36	21	1	20	16.6	15.9	0.67	16.5	13.8	2.78
Brandan Wright	31	31	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.04	7	15	-8	16.1	16.5	-0.48	13.4	16.8	-3.36
Jose Calderon	64	64	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.24	14	8	6	17.0	14.8	2.15	16.3	13.8	2.50
DeJuan Blair	22	21	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.08	7	15	-8	15.2	16.8	-1.58	16.7	15.3	1.42
Samuel Dalembert	44	45	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.08	7	15	-8	16.9	15.9	1.00	16.6	14.7	1.91
Bernard James	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	21	-20	22.0	16.3	5.69	33.0	15.4	17.57
Gal Mekel	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	21	-20	22.0	16.3	5.69	33.0	15.4	17.57

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erik Murphy	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-21	20	33.0	15.4	17.57	22.0	16.3	5.69
Mike Dunleavy	32	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.18	-9	-13	4	16.2	15.3	0.97	17.3	15.8	1.46
Nazr Mohammed	8	7	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	-14	6	17.2	15.5	1.79	15.4	16.5	-1.03
Kirk Hinrich	46	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.23	-13	-9	-4	16.6	14.6	1.97	16.6	16.2	0.41
Joakim Noah	67	69	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-18	14	15.6	15.8	-0.27	16.9	14.7	2.17
Carlos Boozer	53	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.25	-18	-4	-14	16.5	14.4	2.07	16.2	16.6	-0.37
Tony Snell	44	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.08	-9	-13	4	14.6	16.6	-1.97	16.2	16.6	-0.40
Taj Gibson	52	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	-8	-6	14.6	17.0	-2.43	16.0	16.9	-0.92
Jimmy Butler	87	87	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.04	-16	-6	-10	15.4	21.3	-5.91	16.3	17.7	-1.33
D.J. Augustin	60	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.05	-18	-4	-14	15.3	16.3	-1.02	15.8	17.5	-1.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 109, DAL 73	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
SAS 120, PHX 90	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
WAS 106, BOS 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%