NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	104		Excitement	12.7 [16]		MVP	Al Jefferson (CHA): +26.7%
Toronto Raptors	102		Comeback	12.6 [40]		LVP	Greivis Vasquez (TOR): -31.1%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.16,0.18,0.27,0.27	0.06	0.20	-0.01	18	52%	0.34	1	-0.07	10	60%	-0.00
Kemba Walker	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.26	0.07	0.20	0.01	18	67%	0.55	6	-0.29	7	71%	-0.09
Josh McRoberts	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.04	0.21	0.00	10	59%	0.27	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.11	0.08	-0.00	5	91%	0.18	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Bismack Biyombo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Jeff Taylor	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06	0.00	-0.05	0.01	8	46%	-0.06	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Cody Zeller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	12	39%	-0.04	3	-0.13	4	75%	-0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.02	0.14	0.00	3	67%	0.16	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.17,0.1	0.10	-0.03	0.13	-0.00	14	57%	0.31	5	-0.21	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.00	4	60%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	9	56%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	9	56%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.05	0.00	7	61%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	9	28%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.11	-0.01	26	48%	-0.03	2	-0.05	10	80%	-0.18
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27,-0.31	-0.31	-0.13	-0.18	-0.01	15	28%	-0.23	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	29.6	15.7	26.9	1.8	32.7	1.8	23.5	158.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +70.7%

CHA +9.6%

TOR -22.6%

TOR -18.0%

CHA +10.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	TOR	NBA	CHA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	14.8	15.1	100.0	95.3	105.2
season	15.7	15.9		102.4	107.2
opponent	15.1	15.1		104.2	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHA	16.7	15.7	15.0	15.3	12.1	15.3
TOR	14.0	14.3	15.0	16.7	13.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Henderson	70	70	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.42	14	-12	26	16.0	13.8	2.21	15.4	13.7	1.74
Kemba Walker	85	89	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.36	9	-7	16	15.4	14.7	0.70	14.6	16.1	-1.53
Al Jefferson	76	76	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-7	16	15.6	14.4	1.20	15.4	13.6	1.77
Anthony Tolliver	24	25	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.06	17	-15	32	15.2	15.3	-0.08	16.8	14.2	2.61
Josh McRoberts	73	76	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	-8	18	15.5	14.7	0.81	16.3	11.2	5.09
Bismack Biyombo	28	31	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.12	-7	9	-16	14.4	15.6	-1.20	13.6	15.4	-1.77
Cody Zeller	20	19	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	12	-22	16.2	15.1	1.10	9.5	16.0	-6.46
Ramon Sessions	60	61	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.09	-11	13	-24	15.1	15.5	-0.41	14.0	15.9	-1.92
Ben Gordon	18	17	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.03	-10	12	-22	15.4	15.3	0.17	14.1	15.0	-0.93
Jeff Taylor	44	47	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	0.04	-15	17	-32	14.9	15.6	-0.65	15.0	14.7	0.21

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	48	46	0.62	-1.12	1.75	0.59	1	-3	4	15.4	14.4	1.01	15.5	15.2	0.31
Greivis Vasquez	61	61	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.13	8	-10	18	14.2	15.7	-1.50	14.4	16.5	-2.09
Tyler Hansbrough	39	38	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.06	5	-7	12	14.9	14.8	0.17	14.8	15.6	-0.86
John Salmons	54	51	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.22	3	-5	8	14.2	15.5	-1.32	14.1	16.5	-2.41
DeMar DeRozan	80	80	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	-1	0	15.1	14.1	0.93	15.8	13.6	2.24
Amir Johnson	75	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.24	-9	7	-16	15.6	13.0	2.63	15.8	14.0	1.81
Patrick Patterson	55	50	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.53	-4	2	-6	12.8	17.0	-4.20	14.8	15.7	-0.90
Jonas Valanciunas	42	40	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.63	-2	0	-2	16.7	13.6	3.08	16.9	14.3	2.59
Kyle Lowry	81	79	-0.85	0.35	-1.19	-0.52	-11	9	-20	14.8	14.8	-0.01	15.4	15.0	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.56,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.82,0.85,0.75,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.61,0.46,0.32,0.73,0.54,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 104, CHA 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.53,0.37,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.22,0.04,0	89.1%
DEN 116, SEA 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.61,0.68,0.6,0.72,0.73,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.33,0.92,0.46,0.39,0.21,0.03,0,0	88.9%
SAS 99, NYK 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.83,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.76,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.46,0.36,0.16,0.02,0.01,0	88.3%