NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	100		Excitement	8.6 [182]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +40.9%
San Antonio Spurs	102		Comeback	3.4 [776]		LVP	Mike Scott (ATL): -7.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.36	0.05	0.31	-0.00	13	63%	0.51	3	-0.15	4	100%	0.03
Al Horford	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.03	0.01	16	56%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	-0.03	0.04	11	77%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	43%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Jenkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	4	75%	0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Louis Williams	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	14	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.07	-0.08	0.01	-0.00	20	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Mike Scott	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.41	0.41	0.08	0.36	0.03	15	68%	0.54	3	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.11	-0.01	9	80%	0.25	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.19	0.19	0.00	0.18	-0.01	7	50%	0.21	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.08
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.10	0.01	11	68%	0.21	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	9	72%	0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	-0.00	7	29%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	58%	0.05	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	21%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.8	24.3	15.4	23.3	1.7	33.0	121.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +51.3%

SAS +13.6%

ATL -1.7%

ATL -17.2%

SAS +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAS	NBA	ATL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.8	14.6	15.1	101.0	105.2	105.2
season	14.8	15.0		103.8	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.3		101.1	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.7	15.8	14.5	12.3	14.8
SAS	13.3	15.5	13.8	16.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Louis Williams	54	51	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.19	6	-8	14	15.8	13.6	2.20	15.5	13.7	1.77
John Jenkins	8	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	0	-2	14.1	14.8	-0.69	16.4	14.5	1.94
Elton Brand	27	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-1	0	15.4	14.5	0.89	13.7	15.0	-1.34
DeMarre Carroll	76	75	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.30	7	-9	16	14.4	15.9	-1.51	14.8	14.0	0.75
Paul Millsap	79	80	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.42	8	-10	18	14.2	17.1	-2.94	14.6	14.8	-0.16
Al Horford	71	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.41	2	-4	6	14.7	14.9	-0.19	15.0	13.7	1.34
Cartier Martin	42	42	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.11	-9	7	-16	15.2	14.4	0.83	13.7	15.4	-1.70
Mike Scott	21	17	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.03	-13	11	-24	16.3	14.3	2.00	14.8	14.6	0.16
Shelvin Mack	42	42	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.24	-7	5	-12	14.6	14.9	-0.28	13.5	15.5	-1.95
Jeff Teague	75	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.46	-1	-1	0	14.3	16.2	-1.97	14.9	13.8	1.05

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	68	69	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.61	1	1	0	15.2	13.4	1.78	14.5	15.3	-0.73
Patty Mills	29	30	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.15	15	-13	28	13.5	15.1	-1.63	15.9	14.2	1.69
Kawhi Leonard	44	44	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.48	-3	5	-8	14.6	14.7	-0.07	15.2	14.4	0.76
Tony Parker	75	77	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.39	-4	6	-10	14.9	13.8	1.11	14.3	16.5	-2.24
Marco Belinelli	51	55	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	-6	14	14.6	14.7	-0.04	14.1	15.5	-1.42
Boris Diaw	61	62	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	0	2	14.8	14.4	0.38	14.1	15.9	-1.77
Matt Bonner	0	1	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.01	3	-1	4	0.0	14.6	-14.63	1.0	14.9	-13.90
Manu Ginobili	50	48	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.26	-8	10	-18	13.8	15.5	-1.63	13.7	15.8	-2.12
Jeff Ayres	14	15	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	2	-2	15.1	14.5	0.60	16.3	14.5	1.78
Danny Green	43	45	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	5	-8	15.7	13.8	1.92	15.9	13.8	2.16
Tiago Splitter	50	49	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	3	-4	13.8	15.5	-1.71	16.1	13.4	2.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.29,0.32,0.58,0.43,0.66,0.71,0.87,0.64,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.84,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 102, OKC 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.25,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.76,0.79,0.91,0.92,1	92.6%
UTA 103, MIN 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.89,0.96,0.92,1	92.5%
BKN 109, CLE 119	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.54,0.81,0.85,0.94,1,1	92.0%