NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	95		Excitement	8.8 [158]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +26.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	98		Comeback	12.7 [181]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -28.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marquis Teague	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.02	0.08	-0.08	0.02	6	73%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Carlos Boozer	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	10	67%	0.09	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	19	44%	0.03	4	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.23,0.23,-0.05	0.01	-0.09	-0.02	12	46%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Nazr Mohammed	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	1	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Joakim Noah	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Taj Gibson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	10	36%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Luol Deng	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.28	-0.09	-0.18	0.01	17	41%	-0.20	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.17	0.16	0.06	19	74%	0.30	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.14,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.11	0.00	14	61%	0.29	2	-0.12	5	100%	0.02
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	-0.01	7	57%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.11,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.04	0.02	12	61%	0.09	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	59%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24	-0.24	-0.17	-0.09	-0.03	20	27%	-0.18	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.6	29.3	14.7	25.0	1.8	32.6	131.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +92.1%

CHI -11.7%

CHI -47.1%

POR +18.3%

CHI -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	POR	NBA	CHI	POR	NBA
this game	15.9	15.4	15.1	102.2	107.7	105.2
season	16.3	15.1		101.1	109.6
opponent	14.8	15.3		106.5	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.6	15.1	15.4	18.9	15.9
POR	16.0	16.2	13.4	16.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	32	32	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.35	15	-18	33	16.9	15.4	1.50	17.5	14.2	3.23
Derrick Rose	57	55	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.13	-9	6	-15	14.8	17.6	-2.80	14.8	16.2	-1.40
Marquis Teague	15	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.20	2	-5	7	15.9	15.9	-0.07	16.3	15.2	1.14
Carlos Boozer	51	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	7	-17	15.1	17.0	-1.92	14.3	16.6	-2.22
Taj Gibson	47	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.51	10	-13	23	16.7	15.2	1.53	16.7	14.0	2.66
Mike Dunleavy	63	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-1	-1	16.2	15.4	0.82	14.7	16.6	-1.88
Kirk Hinrich	62	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-2	1	16.0	15.7	0.27	16.4	13.2	3.19
Luol Deng	83	81	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.50	-1	-2	1	16.2	13.4	2.83	15.2	16.4	-1.15
Joakim Noah	55	54	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.06	-19	16	-35	15.8	16.1	-0.35	13.9	17.5	-3.52

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	70	71	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.37	15	-12	27	14.8	17.1	-2.30	15.9	16.0	-0.10
Robin Lopez	69	70	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.35	12	-9	21	14.8	17.3	-2.56	16.0	15.7	0.25
Damian Lillard	67	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	-1	5	14.7	17.4	-2.72	15.9	15.9	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	80	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	-1	5	15.1	16.8	-1.67	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Nicolas Batum	74	78	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	1	1	14.8	17.8	-2.94	15.9	15.8	0.15
Mo Williams	38	39	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	7	-11	17.4	13.9	3.47	15.1	16.5	-1.42
Dorell Wright	24	23	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	5	-7	17.4	14.6	2.77	16.0	15.9	0.10
Joel Freeland	26	25	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.11	-8	11	-19	17.2	14.6	2.55	17.4	15.4	2.02
Thomas Robinson	10	9	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.09	-8	11	-19	16.9	15.2	1.71	15.7	16.0	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.24,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.63,0.68,0.78,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.45,0.16,0.33,0.56,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 82, CHI 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.31,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.57,0.58,1	89.8%
NJN 86, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.26,0.32,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.76,0.58,0.69,0.58,0.39,0.39,0.21,0.43,0.85,1	88.7%
NYK 84, GSW 86	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.46,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.42,1	88.6%