NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	106		Excitement	6.3 [527]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +24.9%
Golden State Warriors	116		Comeback	1.9 [712]		LVP	Cory Joseph (SAS): -13.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.01	10	65%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	15	71%	0.23	5	-0.15	5	80%	0.01
Patty Mills	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.13	-0.01	0.09	16	70%	0.05	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Nando De Colo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.02	-0.04	10	41%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
DeJuan Blair	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	15	44%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Aron Baynes	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	27%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Tiago Splitter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	9	44%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.04	0.04	11	42%	-0.06	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.21	0.09	0.05	23	73%	0.33	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.07	0.02	9	80%	0.19	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	17	64%	0.14	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Festus Ezeli	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	1	50%	0.00	3	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	10	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.02	-0.04	10	50%	0.03	6	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	27.2	14.6	25.3	2.4	25.7	121.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +46.6%

GSW +5.6%

GSW +4.2%

SAS -10.4%

GSW +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	13.0	13.5	15.4	98.1	106.4	104.1
season	15.2	14.6		106.4	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.1		103.7	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.0	12.2	13.6	12.2	13.0
GSW	12.2	13.0	13.1	15.9	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Neal	59	59	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-12	14	13.4	12.5	0.91	13.3	13.8	-0.45
Tiago Splitter	43	42	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-9	8	13.8	12.5	1.23	13.0	13.8	-0.84
Nando De Colo	63	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.27	3	-13	16	12.3	14.1	-1.86	14.0	12.9	1.08
Matt Bonner	69	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-7	4	13.6	12.0	1.65	13.1	14.2	-1.07
Aron Baynes	68	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-3	-4	12.6	13.8	-1.27	13.6	13.3	0.32
Patty Mills	49	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-7	4	12.3	13.6	-1.32	14.4	12.8	1.58
Cory Joseph	73	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.04	-11	1	-12	13.1	12.9	0.21	13.7	13.1	0.55
Danny Green	46	45	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.07	-10	0	-10	13.3	12.8	0.48	12.5	14.2	-1.67
DeJuan Blair	70	72	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.15	-20	10	-30	13.0	13.0	0.04	13.7	13.2	0.49

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Klay Thompson	78	78	0.71	-0.21	0.92	-0.17	30	-20	50	13.4	13.7	-0.32	13.9	10.8	3.13
Festus Ezeli	67	66	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.10	18	-8	26	14.1	12.6	1.42	12.9	13.2	-0.31
David Lee	81	82	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.01	18	-8	26	13.0	15.0	-1.95	13.6	11.3	2.27
Stephen Curry	87	87	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.01	13	-3	16	13.5	13.7	-0.21	13.3	12.0	1.28
Harrison Barnes	77	76	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.22	1	9	-8	13.4	13.8	-0.42	12.7	13.7	-0.98
Kent Bazemore	17	16	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.30	-6	16	-22	13.6	13.5	0.16	10.2	13.5	-3.33
Jarrett Jack	66	66	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	8	-6	13.6	13.4	0.23	13.4	12.4	1.06
Richard Jefferson	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	18	-26	15.7	13.3	2.41	7.3	13.5	-6.21
Carl Landry	62	60	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.34	-18	28	-46	13.4	13.6	-0.22	12.4	13.7	-1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.81,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 111, HOU 115	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.81,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.84,0.96,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.93,0.96,1,1	94.0%
ATL 107, SAC 119	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.84,0.92,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	93.6%
WAS 98, CLE 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.98,1,1	93.4%