NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	83		Excitement	2.4 [1265]		MVP	Larry Sanders (MIL): +6.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	100		Comeback	1.1 [1122]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -8.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.01	0.02	8	55%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Quincy Acy	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	7	72%	0.02	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Landry Fields	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	56%	0.00	2	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Alan Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.07	0.00	0.07	10	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.12	0.00	-0.10	5	21%	-0.01	3	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	9	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	-0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	14	43%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	-0.06	7	14%	-0.06	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	-0.04	10	18%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	0.01	9	37%	-0.03	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.00	7	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.01	-0.06	14	58%	0.08	5	-0.02	10	100%	0.02
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	67%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	56%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.11	0.02	-0.12	5	33%	0.05	4	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.05	14	55%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	17%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.05	6	71%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	10	37%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	30.4	15.6	26.2	2.5	32.6	135.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +42.4%

MIL +3.2%

TOR -5.1%

MIL +8.5%

MIL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.0	15.4	89.2	109.9	104.1
season	16.1	14.7		104.4	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.3		103.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	19.2	15.1	15.5	15.8	16.3
MIL	15.8	12.6	13.3	19.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	1	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	-15	13	13.0	16.3	-3.32	17.0	15.0	2.01
Alan Anderson	42	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.40	10	-27	37	15.3	17.1	-1.86	16.7	13.7	3.01
Sebastian Telfair	48	46	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-19	21	15.6	17.0	-1.44	15.9	14.1	1.78
Quincy Acy	40	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.38	8	-25	33	15.2	17.1	-1.94	16.6	13.8	2.85
Jonas Valanciunas	46	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.15	-1	-16	15	16.5	16.0	0.48	17.5	12.5	4.99
Terrence Ross	54	53	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-17	17	15.6	17.3	-1.73	15.7	14.1	1.60
Landry Fields	50	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.17	-17	0	-17	15.9	16.8	-0.91	12.5	17.8	-5.36
Amir Johnson	49	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.32	-22	5	-27	17.4	15.0	2.47	13.8	16.3	-2.54
Rudy Gay	44	42	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.22	-19	2	-21	17.5	15.2	2.27	14.0	15.9	-1.83
DeMar DeRozan	46	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.38	-25	8	-33	16.9	15.7	1.25	13.7	16.4	-2.71
Kyle Lowry	45	45	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.20	-19	2	-21	17.0	15.6	1.44	14.1	15.9	-1.78

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	76	76	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.16	23	-6	29	14.6	17.1	-2.54	16.7	14.5	2.14
Larry Sanders	54	54	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.39	27	-10	37	13.6	17.1	-3.44	17.3	14.8	2.47
Ersan Ilyasova	52	51	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.42	27	-10	37	13.6	16.9	-3.39	17.1	15.2	1.90
Brandon Jennings	55	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.30	21	-4	25	13.9	16.7	-2.83	16.8	15.5	1.36
Luc Mbah a Moute	47	50	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	12	-7	14.4	15.6	-1.17	15.5	17.1	-1.60
Marquis Daniels	41	41	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.20	14	3	11	14.5	15.4	-0.86	17.0	15.7	1.20
Mike Dunleavy	35	37	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.24	-3	20	-23	17.1	13.7	3.42	15.8	16.6	-0.78
JJ Redick	45	47	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.44	-10	27	-37	16.2	13.9	2.26	15.2	17.4	-2.20
Gustavo Ayon	33	35	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.42	-11	28	-39	16.3	14.3	2.03	14.5	17.4	-2.88
Drew Gooden	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	16	-15	23.2	14.6	8.62	18.0	16.2	1.80
John Henson	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	21	-25	22.2	14.5	7.66	14.5	16.4	-1.90
Ish Smith	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	22	-27	21.7	14.5	7.26	14.4	16.5	-2.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 103, GSW 123	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
SAC 96, WAS 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
LAL 86, POR 113	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%