NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	101		Excitement	8.5 [183]		MVP	Brandon Knight (DET): +29.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	107		Comeback	1.2 [1003]		LVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): -14.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Knight	0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.29	0.10	0.20	0.01	15	69%	0.37	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.04
Greg Monroe	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	13	57%	0.14	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0.02	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	5	75%	0.17	3	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	40%	0.02	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	5	60%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	5	58%	0.06	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Rodney Stuckey	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.14	-0.02	-0.12	0.00	15	56%	0.04	5	-0.18	6	67%	-0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.09	0.11	-0.01	7	72%	0.21	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.01	-0.02	13	69%	0.22	4	-0.14	3	0%	-0.09
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.17,-0.05,-0.08,0.05	0.05	-0.15	0.17	-0.02	13	29%	0.11	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.04
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.02	0.03	9	74%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	15	53%	0.03	1	-0.04	8	75%	-0.02
Greg Stiemsma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alexey Shved	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	10	54%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.03	-0.01	6	31%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.08	-0.00	8	53%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.4	25.5	15.5	28.2	2.6	39.2	137.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -49.6%

MIN +24.5%

MIN +27.7%

MIN +44.5%

MIN +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIN	NBA	DET	MIN	NBA
this game	14.4	15.6	15.4	106.3	110.3	104.1
season	15.7	15.6		102.3	101.3
opponent	14.9	15.5		103.4	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.6	12.6	14.8	13.8	14.4
MIN	13.4	15.5	17.2	16.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	46	48	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.24	12	-18	30	13.5	15.3	-1.74	15.6	15.5	0.11
Charlie Villanueva	22	22	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-5	4	12.0	15.2	-3.15	13.6	16.1	-2.56
Rodney Stuckey	55	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.33	5	-11	16	13.5	15.7	-2.25	15.5	15.6	-0.08
Khris Middleton	53	55	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.37	4	-10	14	13.4	15.7	-2.36	16.0	15.0	0.96
Kyle Singler	43	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.02	-8	2	-10	15.4	13.6	1.82	15.4	15.7	-0.25
Greg Monroe	63	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.11	-8	2	-10	15.0	13.4	1.58	15.8	15.2	0.60
Brandon Knight	81	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-5	4	14.6	13.1	1.50	15.6	15.6	-0.04
Jose Calderon	53	53	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.06	-16	10	-26	15.3	13.3	1.99	15.0	16.2	-1.21
Andre Drummond	59	60	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.27	-17	11	-28	15.5	12.7	2.74	16.3	14.4	1.83

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Pekovic	70	70	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.28	20	-14	34	15.6	15.6	-0.04	15.4	11.8	3.61
Ricky Rubio	62	62	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.24	17	-11	28	15.7	15.4	0.31	15.2	12.9	2.32
Dante Cunningham	61	60	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-5	16	15.9	15.0	0.90	13.9	15.4	-1.50
Luke Ridnour	40	40	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.04	16	-10	26	14.7	16.2	-1.43	15.5	13.6	1.95
Andrei Kirilenko	84	83	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.27	8	-2	10	15.7	14.8	0.83	14.8	11.9	2.87
Chase Budinger	51	48	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.28	-11	17	-28	16.1	15.0	1.04	13.6	15.2	-1.61
Jose Juan Barea	45	43	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.09	-6	12	-18	15.4	15.7	-0.27	13.2	15.4	-2.17
Alexey Shved	9	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	11	-16	15.4	15.6	-0.14	10.4	14.8	-4.39
Derrick Williams	36	35	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.03	-6	12	-18	15.0	15.9	-0.90	15.4	13.9	1.50
Greg Stiemsma	27	25	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	0.04	-14	20	-34	15.6	15.6	0.04	11.8	15.4	-3.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.71,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.53,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.77,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 97, UTA 107	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.94,0.98,1	92.1%
SEA 110, DEN 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.76,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.82,0.9,0.85,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.91,0.84,1	91.3%
MIA 79, CHH 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.68,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.85,1	91.1%