NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	110		Excitement	10.7 [48]		MVP	JJ Redick (MIL): +19.1%
Houston Rockets	107		Comeback	8.3 [71]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -10.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.3,0.3,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.06	0.13	0.00	11	64%	0.22	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09	-0.03	0.08	-0.05	24	46%	0.14	3	-0.05	11	64%	-0.02
John Henson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	6	86%	0.16	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Larry Sanders	0.08	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,0.08	-0.04	0.11	-0.01	11	45%	0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.01	0.14	-0.12	0.02	13	69%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Ekpe Udoh	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.01	11	67%	0.21	4	-0.25	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	4	30%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.07	-0.00	3	50%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.00	12	59%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Greg Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	4	67%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Donatas Motiejunas	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	9	59%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	14	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	17	56%	0.15	5	-0.17	2	0%	-0.08
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	11	42%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	18	54%	0.15	7	-0.26	10	70%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	32.1	14.7	25.4	1.6	31.3	132.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +18.5%

HOU -2.0%

MIL +27.9%

MIL +5.8%

HOU -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	HOU	NBA	MIL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.2	13.3	15.4	105.8	101.9	104.1
season	14.7	14.2		101.6	107.9
opponent	15.4	15.3		105.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.3	13.5	14.1	16.2	14.2
HOU	12.9	13.7	13.6	13.2	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	67	68	1.01	-0.51	1.53	0.25	26	-23	49	12.9	16.6	-3.64	14.2	11.7	2.57
Brandon Jennings	63	66	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.61	1	2	-1	15.2	12.7	2.54	12.9	14.1	-1.25
Ersan Ilyasova	71	71	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.57	2	1	1	14.5	13.6	0.86	13.3	13.4	-0.10
Monta Ellis	96	97	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.41	5	-2	7	14.2	14.9	-0.71	13.4	12.9	0.51
Larry Sanders	75	75	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.53	-4	7	-11	14.7	13.0	1.65	13.1	14.1	-1.01
Ekpe Udoh	10	10	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.15	11	-8	19	10.1	14.7	-4.56	17.4	12.9	4.48
John Henson	29	29	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.06	6	-3	9	12.4	14.9	-2.55	13.7	13.2	0.43
Drew Gooden	13	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	7	-11	15.8	14.0	1.86	11.5	13.6	-2.06
Luc Mbah a Moute	50	50	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	0.12	-19	22	-41	14.9	13.6	1.35	13.0	13.7	-0.73
JJ Redick	46	46	-0.49	0.99	-1.49	-0.23	-9	12	-21	14.5	14.0	0.54	13.0	13.6	-0.69

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donatas Motiejunas	56	57	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.24	12	-15	27	12.9	13.9	-1.00	15.1	13.2	1.92
Greg Smith	25	26	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	2	-7	13.6	13.2	0.39	12.6	14.8	-2.19
Patrick Beverley	42	43	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	1	-5	13.2	13.4	-0.25	13.2	15.0	-1.76
Chandler Parsons	92	92	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.47	6	-9	15	13.2	14.5	-1.36	14.8	9.7	5.05
Thomas Robinson	18	17	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.23	-18	15	-33	15.1	13.0	2.07	10.9	14.9	-3.99
Jeremy Lin	72	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.42	3	-6	9	13.5	13.1	0.37	15.1	12.4	2.74
Omer Asik	68	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-4	5	13.1	13.7	-0.60	14.8	13.3	1.42
Carlos Delfino	68	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-2	1	13.5	13.1	0.32	14.0	14.6	-0.66
James Harden	84	84	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.42	-9	6	-15	13.4	13.0	0.49	13.7	16.3	-2.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.69,0.59,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.53,0.53,0.35,0.6,0.8,0.89,0.84,0.59,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 127, BKN 125	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.91,0.63,0	89.3%
NYK 90, WAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.82,0	89.1%
UTA 100, MEM 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.84,0	88.2%