NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	103		Excitement	8.9 [136]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +26.0%
Washington Wizards	105		Comeback	7.9 [126]		LVP	Jeremy Lin (HOU): -20.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donatas Motiejunas	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.12	0.00	6	79%	0.22	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
James Harden	0.19	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.06,0.11,0.11,0.19	0.03	0.13	-0.03	23	54%	0.37	3	-0.19	4	100%	0.02
Patrick Beverley	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	9	83%	0.16	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.15	-0.01	0.02	15	75%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
James Anderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Omer Asik	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	0.04	-0.01	4	50%	0.11	5	-0.16	2	50%	-0.02
Carlos Delfino	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	14	43%	0.07	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.09	-0.13	-0.01	9	28%	-0.07	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26	0.26	0.07	0.19	0.01	15	58%	0.28	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.18	0.18	-0.03	0.20	-0.00	16	49%	0.25	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.07
Trevor Booker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	4	80%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.11	0.00	6	57%	0.15	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.05
John Wall	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.09	0.00	10	50%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.07
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	10	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Singleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.07	-0.12	0.00	12	75%	0.16	3	-0.22	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	27.5	15.5	30.3	1.7	35.0	135.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -38.3%

WAS +57.2%

WAS +15.6%

WAS +8.8%

WAS +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	WAS	NBA	HOU	WAS	NBA
this game	16.5	14.3	15.4	110.8	111.7	104.1
season	14.2	15.1		107.9	98.8
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.2	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.6	16.8	16.8	19.7	16.5
WAS	13.6	13.9	13.4	17.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donatas Motiejunas	41	42	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.00	6	-8	14	17.6	15.6	2.01	15.6	13.3	2.29
Greg Smith	19	20	0.16	-0.66	0.81	-0.05	7	-9	16	14.2	17.1	-2.86	14.3	14.3	0.03
James Anderson	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-2	2	13.5	16.8	-3.26	13.9	14.4	-0.50
Patrick Beverley	40	40	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.27	9	-11	20	16.6	16.4	0.20	14.1	14.5	-0.44
Jeremy Lin	53	54	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.17	-11	9	-20	16.4	16.6	-0.20	14.5	14.1	0.44
Omer Asik	69	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.38	-4	2	-6	17.1	14.7	2.45	14.1	14.9	-0.82
Carlos Delfino	69	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.46	-4	2	-6	16.4	16.7	-0.30	14.3	14.4	-0.15
James Harden	83	84	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.42	-6	4	-10	16.5	16.4	0.09	14.0	16.7	-2.65
Chandler Parsons	83	85	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.47	-7	5	-12	16.3	18.3	-2.03	14.2	15.2	-0.99

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Wall	70	69	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.55	12	-10	22	14.1	15.0	-0.90	15.7	18.9	-3.22
Emeka Okafor	66	66	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.42	14	-12	26	13.7	15.9	-2.18	16.8	15.7	1.10
Bradley Beal	76	75	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.48	6	-4	10	13.9	16.2	-2.34	15.4	21.0	-5.60
Trevor Ariza	62	62	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.36	4	-2	6	15.1	12.9	2.16	17.1	15.3	1.84
Nene	60	60	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.38	-3	5	-8	15.1	12.9	2.22	15.7	17.9	-2.26
Martell Webster	60	59	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.19	0	2	-2	13.6	15.5	-1.88	17.5	14.8	2.71
Chris Singleton	21	20	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	1	0	15.1	14.1	1.05	17.4	16.2	1.23
Garrett Temple	5	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	5	-8	12.8	14.4	-1.62	10.0	16.8	-6.78
Trevor Booker	26	26	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	-0.05	-11	13	-24	14.9	14.1	0.77	17.2	16.2	0.98
A.J. Price	24	24	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.10	-10	12	-22	15.0	14.1	0.90	18.9	15.7	3.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.27,0.47,0.38,0.63,0.78,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 105, UTA 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.36,0.31,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.22,0.24,0.35,0.22,0.31,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.3,0.41,0.53,0.38,0.61,0.69,0.73,1	93.0%
ORL 99, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.28,0.19,0.24,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.46,0.47,0.63,0.86,0.84,1	92.7%
BOS 115, PHI 118	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.46,0.31,0.54,0.57,0.58,1	91.6%