NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	90		Excitement	6.7 [455]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +26.8%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	2.2 [890]		LVP	Andre Iguodala (DEN): -20.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.09	0.01	12	77%	0.27	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Courtney Lee	0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	9	79%	0.12	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fab Melo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.01	16	50%	0.07	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	43%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Garnett	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15	-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	14	40%	-0.10	1	-0.06	2	0%	-0.07
Paul Pierce	-0.20	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	14	30%	-0.11	2	-0.09	5	100%	0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.27	0.27	0.18	0.10	0.01	13	72%	0.27	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.10	-0.00	17	58%	0.24	1	-0.03	11	73%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	6	85%	0.11	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.07	0.00	10	45%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	45%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	-0.00	6	73%	0.10	3	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	7	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.05	-0.00	7	6%	-0.18	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	26.7	16.0	29.2	2.7	36.2	134.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +14.0%

DEN +8.2%

DEN +8.6%

DEN +22.0%

BOS -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DEN	NBA	BOS	DEN	NBA
this game	16.2	15.5	15.4	100.0	105.4	104.1
season	14.9	14.4		101.2	108.4
opponent	15.4	16.2		104.0	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.3	18.1	18.3	14.3	16.2
DEN	16.2	14.0	15.2	16.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	58	60	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.07	5	-12	17	16.2	16.2	-0.03	16.4	13.7	2.76
Avery Bradley	61	64	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.20	7	-14	21	15.3	18.2	-2.91	16.5	13.1	3.38
Fab Melo	1	0	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-7	7	9.0	16.3	-7.28	0.0	15.5	-15.46
Chris Wilcox	19	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-5	3	18.8	15.5	3.35	15.1	15.5	-0.43
Paul Pierce	64	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.32	4	-11	15	15.8	17.2	-1.34	16.0	13.8	2.25
Brandon Bass	56	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	0	-7	16.0	16.5	-0.53	15.1	16.0	-0.94
Courtney Lee	55	56	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.10	-8	1	-9	17.6	14.0	3.55	15.2	15.9	-0.76
Jason Collins	22	23	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.06	-12	5	-17	15.9	16.3	-0.39	13.7	16.0	-2.29
Jason Terry	50	51	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.28	-9	2	-11	16.2	16.2	0.00	14.8	16.2	-1.38
Jeff Green	64	64	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.28	-13	6	-19	15.9	16.9	-1.02	14.7	17.2	-2.53

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	76	73	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.27	20	-13	33	15.3	16.3	-1.04	16.1	16.7	-0.62
Kenneth Faried	67	65	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.25	6	1	5	15.0	16.7	-1.68	16.4	15.6	0.89
Ty Lawson	72	70	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	3	1	15.2	16.2	-1.01	16.4	15.6	0.77
Andre Iguodala	56	53	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.34	-2	9	-11	16.0	14.6	1.43	16.0	16.5	-0.58
Corey Brewer	37	38	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	4	-1	15.1	15.7	-0.54	16.1	16.2	-0.12
Andre Miller	43	45	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.13	2	5	-3	15.9	15.1	0.85	15.7	16.7	-1.07
JaVale McGee	32	33	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	3	1	16.1	15.1	0.93	17.4	15.5	1.89
Wilson Chandler	34	33	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	8	-9	15.7	15.3	0.35	15.8	16.5	-0.70
Kosta Koufos	43	40	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	8	-9	15.3	15.6	-0.25	16.1	16.3	-0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.31,0.39,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.36,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.9,0.99,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 76, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.94,0.98,1,1	93.8%
MIL 80, PHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	93.5%
POR 89, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.55,0.39,0.48,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.85,0.96,0.98,1,1	93.1%