NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	110		Excitement	2.8 [1225]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +14.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder	100		Comeback	1.0 [474]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -3.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.18	0.00	0.03	24	68%	0.20	4	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.01	0.03	14	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	64%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	5	30%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	54%	0.02	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	7	37%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	3	12%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	13	45%	0.03	4	-0.06	3	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	5	64%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
DeAndre Liggins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Perry Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Orton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	7	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	5	58%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	19	51%	0.04	6	-0.07	13	92%	0.03
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.13	-0.00	0.17	24	63%	0.02	5	-0.06	15	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	3.0	37.0	18.8	28.3	2.7	40.0	158.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.7%

OKC -9.8%

MIA +6.5%

MIA +1.5%

MIA +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	OKC	NBA	MIA	OKC	NBA
this game	16.7	11.9	15.4	108.9	100.0	104.1
season	15.7	14.8		110.2	109.3
opponent	15.5	15.9		100.6	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	14.4	17.8	20.0	16.7
OKC	13.5	12.4	13.5	8.4	11.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	81	81	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	-5	20	16.7	16.6	0.05	11.9	12.2	-0.33
LeBron James	84	82	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.02	15	-5	20	16.8	16.1	0.76	12.1	11.4	0.67
Ray Allen	66	65	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.19	6	4	2	16.4	17.2	-0.82	11.3	13.2	-1.94
Dwyane Wade	65	68	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.10	9	1	8	15.7	18.5	-2.81	12.7	10.4	2.26
Rashard Lewis	40	39	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	0	10	17.1	16.4	0.63	12.6	11.5	1.07
Shane Battier	57	56	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	10	-10	16.6	16.8	-0.18	11.3	12.7	-1.41
Norris Cole	35	34	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	10	-10	17.5	16.3	1.26	11.1	12.4	-1.25
Mario Chalmers	57	56	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	10	-10	17.3	15.9	1.35	12.3	11.4	0.91
Chris Andersen	14	13	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.19	-6	16	-22	16.9	16.7	0.19	12.4	11.9	0.51
Joel Anthony	6	6	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	9	-8	16.2	16.7	-0.56	11.8	11.9	-0.11

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Orton	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	8.0	12.0	-3.98	19.0	16.7	2.33
Perry Jones	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	8.0	12.0	-3.98	19.0	16.7	2.33
DeAndre Liggins	2	1	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-8	6	4.0	12.1	-8.10	19.0	16.7	2.33
Nick Collison	29	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.15	1	-11	12	12.2	11.8	0.33	17.6	16.3	1.24
Reggie Jackson	47	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.27	4	-14	18	10.3	13.4	-3.14	17.6	15.9	1.69
Thabo Sefolosha	48	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-5	0	13.2	10.7	2.48	16.0	17.4	-1.44
Kevin Martin	58	58	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.31	2	-12	14	11.1	13.1	-2.03	17.5	15.6	1.94
Kendrick Perkins	50	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.09	-14	4	-18	13.0	10.9	2.12	15.5	17.9	-2.40
Russell Westbrook	91	92	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.21	-8	-2	-6	11.9	11.9	0.06	16.8	15.3	1.49
Serge Ibaka	74	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.05	-18	8	-26	12.3	11.0	1.32	16.2	18.0	-1.83
Kevin Durant	99	100	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	12.0	8.0	3.98	16.7	19.0	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 99, CHA 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	97.4%
DAL 92, CLE 74	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.19,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.3%
WAS 101, MIL 77	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.3%