NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	14.0 [6]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +11.1%
Boston Celtics	100		Comeback	6.0 [165]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -77.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.42,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.25,0.03	0.03	-0.02	-0.02	31	51%	0.14	3	-0.11	5	60%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	12	62%	0.12	5	-0.22	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	0.03	-0.16	-0.00	17	51%	0.06	1	-0.19	7	71%	-0.03
Mario Chalmers	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	3	0%	-0.09	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2	-0.03	-0.17	0.00	3	33%	-0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.77	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23,-0.27,-0.33,-0.33,-0.38,-0.38,-0.51,-0.51,-0.59,-0.68,-0.68,-0.77	-0.19	-0.60	-0.01	20	37%	-0.41	6	-0.36	6	83%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.01	19	56%	0.12	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.03
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.10	-0.00	12	46%	0.14	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.09
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.01	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	8	61%	0.13	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	58%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.06	-0.02	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.34,-0.34,-0.48,-0.48,-0.48,-0.59,-0.59,-0.36	-0.36	-0.12	-0.25	-0.01	16	45%	-0.02	6	-0.35	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	24.2	3.4	33.2	17.8	28.1	2.7	41.1	1.7	9.7	1.6	17.0	180.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +50.1%

BOS +22.2%

MIA -47.7%

BOS +35.2%

MIA -9.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	17.5	15.3	15.4	91.6	95.2	104.1
season	15.7	14.9		110.2	101.2
opponent	16.2	15.9		101.7	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	17.3	17.5	18.1	15.2	20.4	17.5
BOS	14.7	15.3	17.1	14.8	14.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	24	23	0.29	-0.79	1.07	0.02	9	-11	20	18.3	17.3	0.99	15.0	15.4	-0.31
Udonis Haslem	26	26	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-4	6	18.8	17.1	1.70	16.9	14.7	2.18
Joel Anthony	24	22	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	1	-4	18.7	17.2	1.47	12.6	16.0	-3.41
Rashard Lewis	16	16	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	0	-2	20.5	17.0	3.50	15.7	15.2	0.55
Mario Chalmers	39	41	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	6	-14	17.8	17.4	0.47	15.9	14.9	0.93
Shane Battier	68	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.35	0	-2	2	17.0	18.4	-1.31	14.6	16.4	-1.79
Ray Allen	72	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.43	2	-4	6	17.0	18.6	-1.56	15.2	15.4	-0.16
Chris Bosh	83	83	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.50	1	-3	4	17.2	18.7	-1.47	16.0	12.6	3.41
LeBron James	97	95	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.45	-2	0	-2	17.2	20.9	-3.72	15.1	17.2	-2.12
Dwyane Wade	86	84	-0.69	0.18	-0.87	-0.42	-9	7	-16	17.4	17.9	-0.47	15.3	15.3	-0.06

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	88	90	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.53	8	-6	14	15.3	15.1	0.20	17.7	16.5	1.18
Jeff Green	77	79	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.37	6	-4	10	14.8	16.7	-1.95	17.1	18.7	-1.66
Kevin Garnett	79	80	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.50	1	1	0	15.3	15.2	0.18	18.4	15.0	3.33
Jason Terry	49	53	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	1	0	15.5	15.1	0.42	17.3	17.7	-0.44
Leandro Barbosa	54	55	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.26	5	-3	8	15.5	15.1	0.44	18.2	16.8	1.35
Courtney Lee	49	47	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	-1	4	15.0	15.6	-0.61	16.7	18.2	-1.50
Avery Bradley	51	51	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.18	-5	7	-12	15.1	15.5	-0.44	16.9	18.1	-1.22
Chris Wilcox	5	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.03	1	1	0	9.0	15.6	-6.60	17.3	17.5	-0.20
Jared Sullinger	41	40	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	6	-10	16.7	14.4	2.33	17.7	17.4	0.28
Brandon Bass	25	26	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.07	-6	8	-14	15.6	15.2	0.36	15.4	18.2	-2.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.67,0.53,0.46,0.57,0.83,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.22,0.42,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.43,0.15,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 88, CLE 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.44,0.34,0.25,0.21,0.28,0.42,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.47,0.55,0.67,0.92,0	87.1%
MIA 77, CLE 75	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.57,0.72,0	86.7%
CHH 107, WAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.69,0.6,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.58,0	86.7%