NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	4.2 [994]		MVP	Gordon Hayward (UTA): +18.5%
Utah Jazz	104		Comeback	1.7 [435]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (UTA): -10.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.06	0.03	8	60%	0.09	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03
LeBron James	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.20	-0.06	0.08	19	76%	0.15	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	6	83%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	10	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	13	62%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	11	44%	-0.02	2	-0.03	3	0%	-0.04
Udonis Haslem	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.08	0.01	13	73%	0.24	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.01	-0.03	7	71%	0.11	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	14	64%	0.15	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	78%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	6	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.02	14	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	8	31%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.16	-0.01	-0.06	7	21%	-0.03	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.8	27.6	14.8	24.7	2.0	39.2	135.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +17.7%

UTA +9.6%

UTA +24.8%

MIA -2.1%

MIA -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	UTA	NBA	MIA	UTA	NBA
this game	16.3	17.4	15.4	115.5	119.5	104.1
season	15.7	16.0		110.2	104.6
opponent	15.1	15.9		105.0	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	17.6	18.2	14.0	16.3
UTA	16.6	14.4	18.8	20.2	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	34	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-6	5	14.6	17.4	-2.76	17.6	17.3	0.31
Norris Cole	10	12	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.07	-9	2	-11	18.7	15.9	2.77	13.2	18.1	-4.91
Mike Miller	9	9	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.12	-11	4	-15	20.2	15.8	4.44	13.1	17.9	-4.79
Dwyane Wade	52	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	-1	-5	16.5	15.8	0.73	16.6	18.6	-1.99
Joel Anthony	37	37	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-8	9	17.4	15.3	2.09	19.5	15.9	3.63
Ray Allen	40	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.29	0	-7	7	15.8	16.7	-0.83	18.8	16.2	2.56
Mario Chalmers	66	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-8	9	15.9	17.4	-1.51	17.9	15.6	2.34
Chris Bosh	47	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.05	-12	5	-17	16.7	15.7	1.05	16.1	19.3	-3.20
Rashard Lewis	48	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-8	9	16.0	16.6	-0.56	17.3	17.5	-0.22
LeBron James	77	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.38	1	-8	9	15.8	21.0	-5.17	17.7	14.0	3.75

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordon Hayward	50	47	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.31	3	4	-1	17.0	17.9	-0.95	16.2	16.3	-0.06
Jamaal Tinsley	57	55	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.08	10	-3	13	16.9	18.3	-1.42	15.5	17.7	-2.23
Al Jefferson	69	68	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.27	3	4	-1	17.6	16.6	1.07	15.6	18.9	-3.23
Derrick Favors	32	29	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.14	5	2	3	17.5	17.4	0.11	18.1	15.3	2.87
DeMarre Carroll	27	25	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	1	5	17.3	17.5	-0.21	18.3	15.4	2.93
Earl Watson	17	16	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.06	10	-3	13	15.2	17.9	-2.77	18.9	15.6	3.31
Marvin Williams	60	59	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	6	-5	17.5	17.3	0.21	15.4	18.3	-2.93
Enes Kanter	13	13	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.08	9	-2	11	16.3	17.6	-1.29	20.2	15.5	4.70
Paul Millsap	60	58	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.25	-3	10	-13	17.3	17.5	-0.17	15.2	18.7	-3.58
Randy Foye	37	37	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.01	4	3	1	17.9	17.0	0.95	16.3	16.2	0.06
Alec Burks	13	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.27	-13	20	-33	22.5	16.5	5.95	16.2	16.3	-0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.97,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 104, BOS 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.96,1	95.2%
POR 77, UTA 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.69,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.9,0.98,1,1	95.0%
CHH 101, PHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.91,1	94.7%