NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	99		Excitement	8.4 [201]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +38.9%
Washington Wizards	101		Comeback	2.5 [111]		LVP	A.J. Price (WAS): -18.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.31	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.31	0.06	0.25	-0.00	19	60%	0.38	4	-0.07	10	90%	0.05
Thabo Sefolosha	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.02	7	87%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.02	17	72%	0.18	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
DeAndre Liggins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Hasheem Thabeet	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12	-0.08	-0.09	-0.06	17	39%	-0.06	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.02
Kevin Martin	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	12	31%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.39	0.39	0.08	0.31	0.00	17	59%	0.45	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.13	0.21	0.01	14	67%	0.36	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Jan Vesely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	6	83%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Singleton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.02	20	43%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	55%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.19	-0.19	-0.04	-0.15	-0.00	6	33%	-0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.4	24.3	15.6	26.3	1.8	41.2	132.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +38.9%

OKC -3.4%

WAS +20.1%

OKC -8.8%

WAS +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	WAS	NBA	OKC	WAS	NBA
this game	15.2	15.6	15.4	106.5	107.4	104.1
season	14.8	15.1		109.3	98.8
opponent	15.7	15.5		101.2	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.9	15.2	17.0	14.6	15.2
WAS	14.3	14.8	14.3	19.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hasheem Thabeet	13	13	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-4	6	15.7	15.1	0.60	13.7	15.9	-2.25
Kendrick Perkins	56	58	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.30	9	-11	20	14.5	16.2	-1.78	16.7	14.0	2.68
Kevin Durant	80	80	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.39	11	-13	24	14.9	16.7	-1.77	16.0	13.3	2.75
Reggie Jackson	16	17	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	0	-2	17.4	14.7	2.66	13.0	16.2	-3.21
DeAndre Liggins	8	10	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	2	-6	16.7	15.0	1.73	12.5	16.0	-3.50
Serge Ibaka	69	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.31	1	-3	4	14.8	16.3	-1.51	16.4	13.4	3.03
Russell Westbrook	77	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-2	2	14.7	17.4	-2.66	16.2	13.0	3.21
Nick Collison	33	32	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.06	-11	9	-20	16.8	14.3	2.46	13.4	16.8	-3.32
Thabo Sefolosha	57	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	3	-8	14.5	16.2	-1.62	16.6	14.1	2.51
Kevin Martin	56	57	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.22	-11	9	-20	16.1	13.8	2.26	14.3	17.7	-3.47

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bradley Beal	87	87	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	-2	6	15.5	16.7	-1.17	15.2	14.5	0.72
Garrett Temple	70	69	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	-5	12	15.4	16.3	-0.95	15.2	15.0	0.18
Kevin Seraphin	75	75	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	0	2	15.8	15.1	0.65	15.0	16.1	-1.10
A.J. Price	31	31	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.43	-5	7	-12	16.4	15.2	1.18	14.5	15.5	-1.08
Trevor Ariza	28	27	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	-1	4	13.8	16.4	-2.62	15.9	14.9	1.01
Martell Webster	66	66	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.27	-1	3	-4	16.4	13.8	2.62	14.9	15.9	-1.01
Jan Vesely	39	39	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.29	-3	5	-8	15.3	15.9	-0.63	15.7	14.8	0.90
Chris Singleton	1	1	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	2	-2	0.0	15.8	-15.80	6.0	15.3	-9.27
Emeka Okafor	73	70	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.12	3	-1	4	15.9	14.7	1.24	15.5	14.3	1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.34,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.68,0.87,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 93, ATL 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.89,0.96,0.87,0.9,0.78,0.83,0.92,1	92.2%
IND 87, NOH 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.9,0.92,1	91.7%
MEM 89, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.58,0.41,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.89,0.9,0.95,1	91.6%