NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	96		Excitement	5.9 [611]		MVP	Taj Gibson (CHI): +13.8%
Orlando Magic	94		Comeback	1.8 [708]		LVP	JJ Redick (ORL): -17.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.03	0.00	12	70%	0.19	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Luol Deng	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12	0.11	0.01	0.01	16	61%	0.12	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Carlos Boozer	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	22	61%	0.16	4	-0.08	7	71%	-0.01
Nate Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	2	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	9	32%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	13	63%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeQuan Jones	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	14	59%	0.07	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.02
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.17	-0.17	0.15	-0.27	0.06	20	73%	-0.03	4	-0.14	4	100%	0.03
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.07	0.01	12	29%	-0.15	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.4	24.5	15.7	36.0	2.6	31.2	135.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +35.6%

CHI +9.3%

ORL -8.4%

CHI +13.6%

ORL -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	17.1	16.0	15.4	110.3	108.0	104.1
season	16.6	15.5		101.7	100.3
opponent	15.3	15.2		107.7	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.7	18.2	16.5	18.2	17.1
ORL	15.6	16.9	15.5	16.1	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	81	79	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.42	7	-5	12	17.1	18.0	-0.94	16.6	9.6	7.00
Kirk Hinrich	58	61	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.23	8	-6	14	16.4	18.6	-2.24	16.0	16.0	0.02
Carlos Boozer	73	75	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	-2	6	16.7	19.6	-2.91	15.9	16.5	-0.61
Luol Deng	71	72	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.42	-1	3	-4	16.7	18.8	-2.07	16.1	15.4	0.70
Jimmy Butler	18	16	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.23	3	-1	4	16.7	17.2	-0.51	14.7	16.3	-1.58
Richard Hamilton	55	57	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	2	-2	16.5	18.3	-1.83	16.3	15.4	0.88
Marco Belinelli	31	30	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	2	-2	18.9	16.2	2.71	15.4	16.3	-0.88
Nate Robinson	29	26	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.21	-6	8	-14	18.6	16.4	2.24	16.0	16.0	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	19	19	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.05	-5	7	-12	20.1	16.3	3.81	14.3	16.5	-2.19

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nicholson	21	22	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.00	3	-5	8	16.6	15.8	0.85	17.3	17.1	0.26
DeQuan Jones	18	18	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-6	10	16.8	15.8	1.08	19.9	16.4	3.48
Ish Smith	12	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-2	2	17.2	15.8	1.38	20.8	16.5	4.37
Kyle O'Quinn	5	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	0	-2	16.8	15.9	0.87	20.4	16.9	3.47
Hedo Turkoglu	30	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.21	4	-6	10	16.4	15.8	0.59	18.1	16.6	1.46
Josh McRoberts	35	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.22	4	-6	10	16.8	15.4	1.33	18.9	15.9	3.04
Gustavo Ayon	26	26	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	12	-26	14.9	16.4	-1.50	17.5	17.0	0.59
Arron Afflalo	76	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-2	2	15.7	18.0	-2.32	16.5	21.3	-4.75
Nikola Vucevic	73	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.45	2	-4	6	15.8	16.8	-0.96	16.5	20.3	-3.79
Jameer Nelson	74	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.49	-2	0	-2	15.7	17.5	-1.75	16.5	20.8	-4.37
JJ Redick	65	63	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.43	-9	7	-16	15.9	16.3	-0.40	15.8	20.5	-4.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.1,0.02,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 98, SEA 90	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.09,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.04,0	93.7%
CHH 92, SAS 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.7%
ORL 111, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.21,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.03,0.11,0,0	93.6%