NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	111		Excitement	5.9 [598]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +40.6%
Minnesota Timberwolves	103		Comeback	1.8 [892]		LVP	Antoine Walker (MIN): -9.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.31,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.19	0.22	0.00	17	77%	0.46	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.03
Dwight Howard	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15	0.17	0.01	0.03	12	70%	0.15	0	0.00	16	75%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.02	12	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	75%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	15	37%	-0.05	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	13	64%	0.17	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	9	56%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	8	68%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Rashad McCants	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.01	4	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	20	57%	0.04	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Michael Doleac	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Richard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	47%	0.00	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	5	33%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	8	32%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	30.8	15.0	34.1	2.5	37.6	147.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +24.8%

ORL +7.9%

ORL +3.2%

ORL +15.0%

MIN -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIN	NBA	ORL	MIN	NBA
this game	14.9	15.9	15.4	118.1	110.8	105.7
season	15.1	15.9		109.9	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.6		109.6	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.9	15.0	13.8	15.0	14.9
MIN	14.1	19.3	16.2	14.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	76	76	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.15	17	-9	26	14.9	15.1	-0.20	16.0	15.4	0.61
Carlos Arroyo	72	71	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.15	15	-7	22	15.0	14.5	0.51	15.7	16.5	-0.71
Rashard Lewis	78	77	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.26	8	0	8	15.2	13.3	1.91	15.6	17.4	-1.84
Pat Garrity	48	46	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.02	13	-5	18	14.6	15.2	-0.68	16.3	15.5	0.82
Keith Bogans	75	74	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	10	-12	15.6	12.1	3.56	16.3	14.3	2.07
Hedo Turkoglu	62	63	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.29	-5	13	-18	14.7	15.2	-0.45	16.0	15.7	0.27
Keyon Dooling	40	41	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	5	-2	13.5	15.9	-2.43	15.4	16.3	-0.85
Trevor Ariza	1	0	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	8	-8	8.0	15.0	-6.97	0.0	15.9	-15.91
Adonal Foyle	18	17	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.12	-9	17	-26	15.1	14.9	0.20	15.4	16.0	-0.61

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	5	4	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-9	10	17.2	15.8	1.36	18.7	14.7	4.03
Antoine Walker	42	43	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.23	7	-15	22	15.1	16.6	-1.49	15.3	14.5	0.80
Rashad McCants	21	21	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	-5	2	15.1	16.1	-1.00	16.0	14.6	1.42
Chris Richard	10	9	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-8	8	15.2	16.0	-0.80	12.2	15.2	-2.95
Marko Jaric	58	58	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-12	16	15.7	16.2	-0.46	14.6	15.3	-0.67
Craig Smith	30	33	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	1	-10	15.1	16.3	-1.15	14.2	15.3	-1.14
Greg Buckner	74	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-4	0	16.2	14.8	1.41	15.2	13.7	1.45
Corey Brewer	57	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-3	-2	16.6	14.8	1.85	15.1	14.7	0.38
Ryan Gomes	49	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	1	-10	15.3	16.6	-1.37	14.5	15.3	-0.79
Al Jefferson	67	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.21	-9	1	-10	16.3	14.8	1.54	15.0	14.7	0.27
Sebastian Telfair	52	53	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	5	-18	16.4	15.3	1.11	14.7	15.2	-0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.21,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.03,0.11,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 96, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.1,0.02,0.06,0.02,0	93.6%
SAS 100, BKN 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.27,0.24,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.07,0.09,0.16,0.09,0	92.8%
UTA 102, TOR 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.02,0	92.4%