NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	97		Excitement	6.8 [444]		MVP	Jimmer Fredette (SAC): +19.5%
Detroit Pistons	103		Comeback	1.9 [936]		LVP	Aaron Brooks (SAC): -19.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmer Fredette	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.19	0.07	0.11	-0.01	10	61%	0.19	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jason Thompson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.03	0.03	10	62%	0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
DeMarcus Cousins	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	21	48%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Travis Outlaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Thomas Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	10	55%	0.07	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.05
John Salmons	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	9	56%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	5	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	6	33%	-0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.21,-0.19	-0.03	-0.15	0.00	8	39%	-0.06	1	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.01	10	62%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	-0.00	5	90%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	-0.01	0.01	13	69%	0.12	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.03
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	9	62%	0.08	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	8	62%	0.13	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Kyle Singler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	40%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	13	53%	0.05	4	-0.11	8	75%	-0.07
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.6	34.4	15.7	25.2	2.5	39.8	141.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +43.2%

DET +4.1%

DET +8.1%

SAC -2.9%

SAC -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DET	NBA	SAC	DET	NBA
this game	15.2	15.7	15.4	105.4	109.6	104.1
season	15.0	15.7		104.7	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.2		106.6	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.9	17.1	15.6	14.5	15.2
DET	16.1	13.6	16.3	16.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Outlaw	23	25	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.13	10	-16	26	15.6	15.1	0.48	17.1	15.2	1.86
Francisco Garcia	47	51	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.14	2	-8	10	14.5	16.1	-1.60	15.2	16.3	-1.17
John Salmons	54	56	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-8	10	14.6	16.1	-1.50	15.9	15.4	0.49
Isaiah Thomas	52	55	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-6	6	15.0	15.6	-0.57	14.8	17.0	-2.16
Thomas Robinson	8	6	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	0	-6	17.6	15.0	2.60	12.8	15.9	-3.08
Jason Thompson	64	66	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.36	7	-13	20	14.5	16.9	-2.41	15.9	15.2	0.76
Charles Hayes	11	10	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.11	-13	7	-20	17.3	15.0	2.30	14.9	15.8	-0.91
Aaron Brooks	40	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.20	-6	0	-6	15.6	15.0	0.57	16.6	15.1	1.50
Jimmer Fredette	44	43	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-1	-4	16.2	14.4	1.83	15.8	15.6	0.14
DeMarcus Cousins	69	72	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.30	-7	1	-8	15.1	15.8	-0.77	15.1	17.6	-2.45
James Johnson	48	46	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.13	-14	8	-22	16.1	14.4	1.70	16.7	14.8	1.92

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Daye	44	40	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	-9	24	15.0	16.3	-1.34	16.2	14.5	1.64
Andre Drummond	39	39	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	-5	16	16.1	15.5	0.62	16.5	14.3	2.19
Greg Monroe	77	73	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	2	2	15.6	16.2	-0.57	14.7	17.3	-2.54
Brandon Knight	69	68	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.17	5	1	4	15.6	16.2	-0.61	14.7	16.9	-2.25
Will Bynum	41	39	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	6	-6	15.2	16.1	-0.96	15.9	14.8	1.17
Charlie Villanueva	21	21	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	-6	18	13.7	16.3	-2.57	17.7	14.5	3.13
Tayshaun Prince	69	66	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.28	-2	8	-10	15.6	16.0	-0.45	14.8	16.4	-1.58
Kyle Singler	62	64	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.22	-1	7	-8	16.5	14.1	2.41	15.3	15.2	0.05
Jason Maxiell	48	50	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.40	-14	20	-34	16.9	14.5	2.46	14.1	16.6	-2.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.89,0.9,0.68,0.64,0.55,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 105, SAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.71,0.86,0.96,1	92.6%
LAC 104, BOS 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.96,1	92.0%
MIN 102, UTA 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.94,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.76,0.85,0.77,0.73,1	91.8%