NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	83		Excitement	7.9 [258]		MVP	D.J. Augustin (IND): +26.6%
Indiana Pacers	88		Comeback	8.6 [110]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -38.7%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.03	0.01	10	62%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Wayne Ellington	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.04	-0.02	6	50%	0.11	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Allen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	8	61%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Mike Conley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.03	-0.08	0.03	-0.02	9	45%	0.06	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.05
Zach Randolph	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	-0.01	18	48%	0.05	3	-0.14	8	87%	0.02
Jerryd Bayless	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	4	11%	-0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	-0.39	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.32,-0.39	-0.18	-0.21	-0.00	17	26%	-0.32	2	-0.07	8	62%	-0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.05,0.27	0.27	0.08	0.19	0.01	9	71%	0.32	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.09
Ben Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	60%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	6	65%	0.20	4	-0.16	8	87%	0.05
Paul George	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	16	58%	0.15	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.03
Sam Young	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	7	62%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	0.01	11	35%	-0.09	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.7	27.2	16.3	29.3	1.8	43.1	141.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +58.3%

IND +17.1%

MEM -22.6%

MEM -0.5%

MEM -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	IND	NBA	MEM	IND	NBA
this game	16.6	16.0	15.4	93.3	100.0	104.1
season	16.5	16.1		102.9	102.4
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.0	99.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	17.6	17.4	15.8	15.7	16.6
IND	19.3	14.7	15.5	14.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	54	54	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.02	7	-12	19	16.9	16.1	0.87	15.5	16.7	-1.18
Wayne Ellington	33	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-8	11	14.8	17.7	-2.90	16.7	15.5	1.22
Marreese Speights	27	27	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-5	5	14.9	17.3	-2.38	17.6	15.2	2.31
Tony Allen	51	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.14	-2	-3	1	17.7	15.1	2.67	15.4	16.6	-1.23
Mike Conley	61	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.36	0	-5	5	16.8	16.2	0.59	14.8	18.4	-3.58
Zach Randolph	77	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-2	-1	16.4	17.9	-1.54	15.5	19.3	-3.79
Jerryd Bayless	33	33	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.10	-11	6	-17	16.3	16.7	-0.45	18.1	14.7	3.37
Rudy Gay	75	73	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.39	-6	1	-7	17.4	12.4	4.93	15.9	16.1	-0.22
Darrell Arthur	34	33	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.33	-13	8	-21	16.1	16.9	-0.76	16.6	15.6	0.99

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul George	74	76	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.29	14	-9	23	15.8	16.8	-0.99	17.3	12.6	4.65
Lance Stephenson	61	61	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	2	1	15.1	18.0	-2.90	17.2	15.3	1.84
David West	65	65	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	1	3	14.8	19.3	-4.48	17.0	15.5	1.54
D.J. Augustin	62	64	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.37	-1	6	-7	15.3	17.6	-2.30	16.8	16.1	0.70
Tyler Hansbrough	24	26	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	0	5	18.5	15.0	3.44	14.8	17.3	-2.51
Roy Hibbert	60	60	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.32	-2	7	-9	15.5	17.0	-1.53	17.1	15.6	1.53
Ben Hansbrough	26	25	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.01	8	-3	11	17.6	15.3	2.30	16.1	16.8	-0.70
Ian Mahinmi	27	27	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.02	3	2	1	17.6	15.2	2.42	16.2	16.8	-0.57
Gerald Green	27	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.04	0	5	-5	18.0	15.1	2.90	15.3	17.2	-1.84
Sam Young	14	13	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.06	-9	14	-23	16.8	15.8	0.99	12.6	17.3	-4.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.54,0.43,0.33,0.21,0.15,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.22,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 97, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.6,0.75,0.71,0.83,0.91,1	92.0%
ATL 98, MIL 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.3,0.53,0.53,0.75,0.93,0.99,1,1	91.9%
WAS 88, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.17,0.27,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.69,0.93,0.9,0.98,1	91.6%