NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	94		Excitement	6.6 [469]		MVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): +40.5%
Detroit Pistons	96		Comeback	2.7 [462]		LVP	Brandon Knight (DET): -20.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.35	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.35,0.35	0.21	0.17	0.04	12	86%	0.35	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	-0.01	7	64%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.27,0	0.12	-0.10	0.02	22	62%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	53%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	35%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Beno Udrih	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	12	35%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Larry Sanders	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	4	40%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.4	0.40	0.09	0.31	-0.00	16	56%	0.40	0	0.00	4	100%	0.10
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	-0.01	-0.02	8	69%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kim English	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Singler	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.02	-0.04	11	31%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.00	8	62%	0.06	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	12	52%	0.03	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	-0.02	9	44%	0.04	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.09	-0.14	-0.02	12	42%	0.01	4	-0.22	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.0	25.2	17.8	24.8	1.6	31.4	126.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +18.5%

DET +27.4%

DET +32.4%

MIL -29.3%

DET +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	15.2	16.8	15.4	104.4	106.7	104.1
season	14.7	15.7		101.6	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.3		106.6	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.8	14.9	14.8	16.2	15.2
DET	15.9	16.4	18.6	16.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ekpe Udoh	23	22	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.17	7	-9	16	13.4	15.8	-2.37	17.4	16.7	0.69
Mike Dunleavy	50	53	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.39	14	-16	30	14.5	15.9	-1.38	17.5	15.9	1.62
Drew Gooden	30	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.14	2	-4	6	15.0	15.2	-0.28	17.1	16.7	0.38
Brandon Jennings	69	72	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.25	4	-6	10	15.6	13.6	2.00	16.7	17.3	-0.61
Beno Udrih	32	31	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.01	-9	7	-16	14.7	15.4	-0.73	16.6	17.0	-0.35
Ersan Ilyasova	49	50	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.36	3	-5	8	15.0	15.4	-0.39	16.9	16.7	0.17
Monta Ellis	78	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.45	3	-5	8	15.0	16.2	-1.17	17.1	15.6	1.44
Luc Mbah a Moute	42	40	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.25	-7	5	-12	15.2	15.1	0.15	16.7	16.9	-0.17
Larry Sanders	37	38	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.13	-11	9	-20	16.4	14.3	2.12	16.3	17.2	-0.87
Marquis Daniels	40	37	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.05	-16	14	-30	15.9	14.5	1.38	15.9	17.5	-1.62

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Bynum	47	47	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.64	6	-4	10	15.1	18.8	-3.68	15.1	15.3	-0.19
Jason Maxiell	48	49	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	-3	8	17.6	16.0	1.58	15.1	15.2	-0.12
Greg Monroe	53	53	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	3	-4	17.6	15.8	1.76	14.8	15.6	-0.84
Tayshaun Prince	65	64	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	4	-6	17.9	14.2	3.72	14.6	16.5	-1.89
Brandon Knight	66	65	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.42	-5	7	-12	17.7	14.5	3.14	14.6	16.6	-2.00
Austin Daye	25	26	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	-2	6	14.2	17.9	-3.72	16.5	14.6	1.89
Andre Drummond	37	37	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	-1	4	15.8	17.6	-1.76	15.6	14.8	0.84
Charlie Villanueva	42	41	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	5	-8	16.0	17.6	-1.58	15.2	15.1	0.12
Kim English	10	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	4	-6	17.4	16.8	0.62	13.5	15.4	-1.83
Kyle Singler	57	57	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.23	5	-3	8	17.2	16.2	1.05	16.2	13.4	2.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.65,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.84,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.86,0.72,0.85,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 102, HOU 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.68,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.98,0.93,0.95,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.71,0.67,0.08,1	91.6%
NOP 87, CHA 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.81,0.63,0.69,0.42,1	91.1%
BOS 82, ORL 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.83,0.91,0.87,0.87,0.79,0.81,0.7,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.58,1	90.9%