NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	5.3 [745]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +20.1%
Charlotte Bobcats	92		Comeback	1.0 [607]		LVP	Gerald Henderson (CHA): -8.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.09	0.00	19	60%	0.27	3	-0.07	10	80%	-0.00
LeBron James	0.16	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.09	0.00	19	59%	0.21	3	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	10	71%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Shane Battier	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	5	90%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	12	52%	0.08	4	-0.09	3	33%	-0.02
Mike Miller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.01	-0.00	12	63%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.01	20	57%	0.19	5	-0.13	7	71%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	12	67%	0.11	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	6	43%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	0.02	-0.02	19	33%	-0.05	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.7	32.5	13.0	27.8	1.6	30.2	132.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.4%

CHA -0.9%

CHA -0.4%

MIA +13.2%

MIA +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	15.3	15.2	15.4	110.5	97.9	104.1
season	15.7	15.6		110.2	99.9
opponent	15.4	15.9		109.8	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.1	12.5	16.4	16.1	15.3
CHA	15.6	12.8	14.2	19.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	52	51	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.00	22	-9	31	15.3	15.3	0.01	15.8	14.4	1.43
Mario Chalmers	67	66	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.09	18	-5	23	15.2	15.6	-0.48	15.4	14.7	0.65
Dwyane Wade	73	71	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.03	19	-6	25	14.7	17.2	-2.50	15.6	13.7	1.95
LeBron James	75	74	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.15	12	1	11	15.6	14.3	1.27	14.9	16.2	-1.31
James Jones	38	37	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	7	-1	13.6	16.4	-2.79	15.0	15.3	-0.24
Chris Bosh	60	59	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.02	6	7	-1	14.6	16.5	-1.91	15.8	14.0	1.82
Shane Battier	46	46	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	12	-11	16.0	14.7	1.35	15.1	15.3	-0.21
Mike Miller	22	23	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.09	-6	19	-25	17.2	14.7	2.50	13.7	15.6	-1.95
Norris Cole	28	28	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	18	-23	15.6	15.2	0.48	14.7	15.4	-0.65
Joel Anthony	14	15	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.11	-8	21	-29	19.1	14.6	4.50	12.3	15.7	-3.38

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	22	22	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-16	19	13.6	15.7	-2.06	17.2	14.7	2.50
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	42	45	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-12	11	14.3	15.9	-1.56	16.3	14.4	1.83
Jeff Taylor	18	16	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-6	-1	13.7	15.5	-1.79	11.9	16.0	-4.13
Kemba Walker	80	82	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	-3	-7	15.6	12.7	2.89	15.9	11.5	4.45
Bismack Biyombo	76	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.08	-12	-1	-11	15.1	15.3	-0.13	15.0	16.7	-1.75
Ramon Sessions	70	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.07	-13	0	-13	15.0	15.7	-0.78	15.1	15.9	-0.82
Hakim Warrick	76	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.14	-12	-1	-11	15.9	12.1	3.78	14.7	17.5	-2.78
Gerald Henderson	86	87	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.12	-13	0	-13	15.4	12.2	3.19	15.3	14.9	0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.24,0.27,0.36,0.2,0.22,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 107, ORL 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.15,0.31,0.15,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.9%
WAS 107, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.19,0.18,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.31,0.15,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.8%
IND 94, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.04,0	93.7%