NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	107		Excitement	4.5 [893]		MVP	Josh Howard (DAL): +20.3%
Orlando Magic	98		Comeback	1.0 [564]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -13.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.06	-0.02	20	61%	0.22	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Brandon Bass	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.00	8	76%	0.18	3	-0.05	5	80%	-0.01
Devean George	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.00	4	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	14	62%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	22	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.06	-0.01	8	74%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.15	0.01	0.04	8	89%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.02	0.04	16	62%	0.16	1	-0.04	13	46%	-0.07
Adonal Foyle	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.07	9	60%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	0.01	16	38%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.06	0.03	14	41%	-0.10	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.6	31.3	16.4	21.4	2.5	39.4	136.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +35.0%

ORL -1.4%

DAL +13.7%

DAL +2.4%

DAL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	ORL	NBA	DAL	ORL	NBA
this game	17.2	15.7	15.4	121.6	112.6	105.7
season	16.1	15.1		108.9	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.4		104.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.9	17.8	21.9	13.2	17.2
ORL	18.1	15.6	18.1	12.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	75	71	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-6	21	16.9	18.8	-1.93	15.4	16.9	-1.51
Jason Terry	57	55	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.20	7	2	5	17.1	17.4	-0.28	14.5	17.7	-3.24
Devean George	47	46	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.29	2	7	-5	17.0	17.4	-0.39	14.1	17.5	-3.38
Josh Howard	69	69	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	5	-1	17.2	17.2	-0.01	15.8	15.2	0.60
Eddie Jones	47	45	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.05	11	-2	13	18.3	16.0	2.30	17.9	13.3	4.62
Erick Dampier	50	52	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	6	-3	19.9	13.6	6.29	17.5	13.0	4.52
Brandon Bass	44	43	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.14	1	8	-7	15.2	19.2	-4.09	14.1	17.3	-3.23
Jose Juan Barea	36	37	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	8	-7	16.0	18.1	-2.09	16.4	15.2	1.27
Trenton Hassell	10	11	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	10	-11	15.9	17.4	-1.47	14.3	15.9	-1.64
Juwan Howard	5	6	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.01	2	7	-5	16.6	17.2	-0.64	18.0	15.5	2.47

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	8	9	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.03	-5	-4	-1	16.2	15.6	0.60	18.1	17.1	1.01
Carlos Arroyo	51	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-10	11	15.6	15.8	-0.13	17.5	16.7	0.81
Keith Bogans	33	33	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-4	-1	14.8	16.3	-1.52	14.5	18.8	-4.35
Maurice Evans	54	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-5	1	16.7	14.0	2.74	19.7	13.2	6.52
Brian Cook	23	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.07	-11	2	-13	16.3	15.5	0.76	17.9	16.9	0.94
Keyon Dooling	40	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	1	-11	14.9	16.4	-1.44	15.5	18.6	-3.17
Hedo Turkoglu	77	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	-7	5	15.5	17.0	-1.47	17.1	18.0	-0.92
Dwight Howard	79	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-5	1	15.6	16.2	-0.60	17.1	18.1	-1.01
Rashard Lewis	70	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-4	-1	15.8	15.2	0.65	17.2	17.3	-0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.15,0.31,0.15,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 119, NJN 112	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0	94.6%
WAS 107, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.19,0.18,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.31,0.15,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.5%
ORL 100, DAL 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0	94.5%