NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	97		Excitement	7.7 [295]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +32.1%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	1.6 [716]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -24.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.32	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.32	0.10	0.22	-0.01	21	62%	0.39	4	-0.07	11	82%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.00	3	75%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	10	62%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	10	58%	0.08	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	2	60%	0.03	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	5	33%	-0.01	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25	-0.14	-0.12	-0.01	19	42%	-0.08	5	-0.17	12	83%	0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.11	0.14	-0.04	20	64%	0.33	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.05
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.08	0.01	14	71%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17	0.17	0.03	0.14	0.00	11	62%	0.23	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.08	0.00	5	50%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.06
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	17	55%	0.23	5	-0.22	4	100%	0.04
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	3.8	32.5	17.8	35.0	1.7	46.6	165.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +56.0%

OKC -8.8%

OKC -5.9%

MIA +8.5%

MIA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIA	NBA	OKC	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	16.8	15.4	105.4	110.8	104.1
season	14.8	15.7		109.3	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.5		102.4	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.6	15.6	15.1	11.4	14.3
MIA	15.7	17.9	16.9	16.9	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	52	53	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.04	2	-8	10	14.9	13.5	1.38	17.3	16.3	0.99
Nick Collison	37	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.20	4	-10	14	14.4	14.2	0.25	18.0	16.1	1.92
Reggie Jackson	26	26	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.19	1	-7	8	14.1	14.3	-0.23	17.8	16.5	1.35
Kendrick Perkins	49	50	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	0	-6	14.4	14.1	0.31	16.4	17.3	-0.91
Kevin Durant	73	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	0	-6	14.7	12.8	1.88	17.2	15.3	1.94
Serge Ibaka	72	71	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.23	-8	2	-10	14.0	15.2	-1.17	16.0	19.5	-3.43
Russell Westbrook	84	84	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	3	-12	14.1	16.2	-2.15	16.4	20.8	-4.36
Kevin Martin	67	68	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.36	-8	2	-10	13.8	15.6	-1.86	16.8	17.0	-0.28

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	81	80	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.26	13	-7	20	16.7	18.0	-1.33	14.4	13.5	0.90
Dwyane Wade	74	75	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.23	10	-4	14	16.8	17.1	-0.27	14.4	13.7	0.71
Ray Allen	45	44	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.50	1	5	-4	16.4	17.2	-0.81	13.3	15.2	-1.94
Mario Chalmers	69	70	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	-3	12	17.6	14.6	3.04	14.9	12.4	2.46
Chris Bosh	59	58	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	7	-8	17.4	15.9	1.51	14.0	14.8	-0.81
Joel Anthony	25	26	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	3	0	15.7	17.3	-1.58	14.3	14.3	-0.02
Shane Battier	46	46	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	2	2	15.8	17.8	-1.96	14.3	14.3	0.04
Udonis Haslem	32	30	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	6	-6	16.7	16.9	-0.14	15.1	13.9	1.26
Mike Miller	13	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	9	-12	19.6	16.4	3.23	14.9	14.2	0.73
Norris Cole	21	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.10	-6	12	-18	16.4	17.0	-0.53	12.6	14.7	-2.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.57,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 83, NOK 90	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.7,0.7,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.75,0.84,0.99,0.98,1	92.7%
MIL 93, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.48,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.1%
PHX 92, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.69,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.79,0.94,0.96,1	92.0%