NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Excitement	7.8 [283]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (NYK): +45.4%
New York Knicks	94		Comeback	7.1 [289]		LVP	Ricky Rubio (MIN): -20.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dante Cunningham	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	10	60%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.00	13	48%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Derrick Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Alexey Shved	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	16	56%	0.08	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	14	39%	0.03	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Greg Stiemsma	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.14	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	6	33%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Pekovic	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.08,-0.16	0.04	-0.20	-0.00	16	52%	-0.03	1	-0.13	8	87%	0.02
Ricky Rubio	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	6	36%	-0.04	5	-0.17	2	50%	-0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,0.21,0.45	0.45	0.04	0.43	0.01	25	54%	0.65	4	-0.20	11	91%	0.13
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	7	67%	0.13	2	-0.07	10	80%	0.01
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pablo Prigioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	15	56%	0.12	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	15	48%	0.04	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.4	28.6	16.4	24.4	2.7	36.5	136.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +46.7%

NYK +42.1%

MIN -32.2%

NYK +3.3%

MIN -9.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	NYK	NBA	MIN	NYK	NBA
this game	16.7	13.8	15.4	96.8	98.9	104.1
season	15.6	16.2		101.3	107.9
opponent	15.5	14.9		103.8	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.2	13.6	19.8	17.8	16.7
NYK	12.6	15.2	12.3	15.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Rubio	33	35	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.07	0	-3	3	16.5	16.8	-0.32	14.7	13.2	1.41
Derrick Williams	23	24	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.13	-4	1	-5	15.0	17.3	-2.28	15.7	13.1	2.54
Dante Cunningham	55	54	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-2	1	17.1	16.2	0.97	13.6	13.9	-0.28
Greg Stiemsma	15	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	0	-3	16.1	16.8	-0.70	17.7	13.1	4.63
Jose Juan Barea	74	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.43	1	-4	5	16.6	17.0	-0.35	14.5	11.3	3.19
Nikola Pekovic	79	81	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-3	3	16.8	16.1	0.70	13.1	17.7	-4.63
Andrei Kirilenko	39	41	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	-1	-1	16.2	17.1	-0.97	13.9	13.6	0.28
Alexey Shved	76	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.51	-2	-1	-1	17.2	14.6	2.68	12.9	17.3	-4.40
Luke Ridnour	76	75	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.49	-4	1	-5	16.9	16.0	0.89	12.9	17.0	-4.09

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	75	75	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.45	6	-3	9	13.5	14.7	-1.18	16.9	16.2	0.64
J.R. Smith	75	75	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.38	8	-5	13	14.1	12.4	1.73	17.2	14.9	2.23
Raymond Felton	76	77	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-1	5	13.0	16.8	-3.78	16.9	15.7	1.24
Jason Kidd	67	65	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.41	2	1	1	14.1	13.0	1.09	17.6	14.9	2.69
Carmelo Anthony	86	85	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.46	-1	4	-5	13.8	13.6	0.24	16.7	16.7	0.06
Pablo Prigioni	9	9	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.04	4	-1	5	13.6	13.8	-0.24	16.7	16.7	-0.06
Steve Novak	39	37	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.07	2	1	1	14.7	13.1	1.52	14.6	18.1	-3.47
Kurt Thomas	20	19	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.04	-3	6	-9	14.7	13.5	1.18	16.2	16.9	-0.64
Ronnie Brewer	28	28	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.04	-7	10	-17	12.8	14.2	-1.34	15.7	17.1	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.16,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 106, WAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.34,0.38,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.73,1	91.5%
CLE 100, NOP 104	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.1,0.58,1	91.5%
HOU 110, MEM 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.36,0.33,0.47,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.73,1	91.3%